Brazil’s 2026 IPCA inflation expectations have climbed steadily toward 4.9 percent in recent Focus surveys and central-bank projections, driven by persistent upside surprises in food and fuel prices amid Middle East supply disruptions. The April 2026 reading reached 4.39 percent year-over-year, just 11 basis points below the 4.5 percent target ceiling, while the central bank raised its full-year forecast to 4.6 percent and noted de-anchored expectations through 2027. With the Selic rate already lowered to 14.50 percent, traders price the narrow 5.00-5.49 percent band as the most likely outcome, reflecting the balance between resilient labor-market pressures and the bank’s cautious easing path ahead of the June Copom meeting and upcoming monthly IPCA releases.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour5,00-5,49 % 27.3%
4,50-4,99 % 16.2%
7,00 %+ 8.1%
4,00-4,49 % 7.5%
$57,305 Vol.
$57,305 Vol.
12 janv. 2027
<3,00 %
<1%
3,00-3,49 %
7%
3,50-3,99 %
2%
4,00-4,49 %
8%
4,50-4,99 %
16%
5,00-5,49 %
30%
5,50-5,99 %
20%
6,00-6,49 %
5%
6,50-6,99 %
3%
7,00 %+
11%
5,00-5,49 % 27.3%
4,50-4,99 % 16.2%
7,00 %+ 8.1%
4,00-4,49 % 7.5%
$57,305 Vol.
$57,305 Vol.
12 janv. 2027
<3,00 %
$4,310 Vol.
<1%
3,00-3,49 %
$4,370 Vol.
7%
3,50-3,99 %
$8,996 Vol.
2%
4,00-4,49 %
$7,722 Vol.
8%
4,50-4,99 %
$7,022 Vol.
16%
5,00-5,49 %
$6,105 Vol.
30%
5,50-5,99 %
$5,695 Vol.
20%
6,00-6,49 %
$4,670 Vol.
5%
6,50-6,99 %
$4,858 Vol.
3%
7,00 %+
$3,556 Vol.
11%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlBrazil’s 2026 IPCA inflation expectations have climbed steadily toward 4.9 percent in recent Focus surveys and central-bank projections, driven by persistent upside surprises in food and fuel prices amid Middle East supply disruptions. The April 2026 reading reached 4.39 percent year-over-year, just 11 basis points below the 4.5 percent target ceiling, while the central bank raised its full-year forecast to 4.6 percent and noted de-anchored expectations through 2027. With the Selic rate already lowered to 14.50 percent, traders price the narrow 5.00-5.49 percent band as the most likely outcome, reflecting the balance between resilient labor-market pressures and the bank’s cautious easing path ahead of the June Copom meeting and upcoming monthly IPCA releases.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Marché ouvert : Jan 23, 2026, 10:35 AM ET
Volume
$57,305Date de fin
12 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Jan 23, 2026, 10:35 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlBrazil’s 2026 IPCA inflation expectations have climbed steadily toward 4.9 percent in recent Focus surveys and central-bank projections, driven by persistent upside surprises in food and fuel prices amid Middle East supply disruptions. The April 2026 reading reached 4.39 percent year-over-year, just 11 basis points below the 4.5 percent target ceiling, while the central bank raised its full-year forecast to 4.6 percent and noted de-anchored expectations through 2027. With the Selic rate already lowered to 14.50 percent, traders price the narrow 5.00-5.49 percent band as the most likely outcome, reflecting the balance between resilient labor-market pressures and the bank’s cautious easing path ahead of the June Copom meeting and upcoming monthly IPCA releases.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Volume
$57,305Date de fin
12 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Jan 23, 2026, 10:35 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Brazil’s 2026 IPCA inflation expectations have climbed steadily toward 4.9 percent in recent Focus surveys and central-bank projections, driven by persistent upside surprises in food and fuel prices amid Middle East supply disruptions. The April 2026 reading reached 4.39 percent year-over-year, just 11 basis points below the 4.5 percent target ceiling, while the central bank raised its full-year forecast to 4.6 percent and noted de-anchored expectations through 2027. With the Selic rate already lowered to 14.50 percent, traders price the narrow 5.00-5.49 percent band as the most likely outcome, reflecting the balance between resilient labor-market pressures and the bank’s cautious easing path ahead of the June Copom meeting and upcoming monthly IPCA releases.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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