Recent polling from mid-September places Flávio Bolsonaro, the Liberal Party candidate and standard-bearer for the right-wing movement, in the 34–42% range for the October 4 first round, with multiple surveys clustering near or above 36%. This positioning reflects strong consolidation of conservative and Bolsonarista voters behind the senator amid a polarized contest against President Lula, limited vote splitting among other right-leaning contenders, and campaign momentum from recent events including Bolsa Família criticism. Trader consensus on a 39%+ outcome aligns with these aggregates and the absence of major late shifts that would erode his base before voting begins.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour39 %+ 88%
36-39 % 11.3%
33-36 % 1.5%
<30 % 1.2%
$50,652 Vol.
$50,652 Vol.
4 oct. 2026
<30 %
1%
30-33 %
1%
33-36 %
2%
36-39 %
11%
39 %+
88%
39 %+ 88%
36-39 % 11.3%
33-36 % 1.5%
<30 % 1.2%
$50,652 Vol.
$50,652 Vol.
4 oct. 2026
<30 %
$4,849 Vol.
1%
30-33 %
$5,215 Vol.
1%
33-36 %
$5,963 Vol.
2%
36-39 %
$11,088 Vol.
11%
39 %+
$23,537 Vol.
88%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Flávio Bolsonaro in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling from mid-September places Flávio Bolsonaro, the Liberal Party candidate and standard-bearer for the right-wing movement, in the 34–42% range for the October 4 first round, with multiple surveys clustering near or above 36%. This positioning reflects strong consolidation of conservative and Bolsonarista voters behind the senator amid a polarized contest against President Lula, limited vote splitting among other right-leaning contenders, and campaign momentum from recent events including Bolsa Família criticism. Trader consensus on a 39%+ outcome aligns with these aggregates and the absence of major late shifts that would erode his base before voting begins.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Flávio Bolsonaro in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Flávio Bolsonaro in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Marché ouvert : Sep 15, 2026, 10:26 PM ET
Volume
$50,652Date de fin
5 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 15, 2026, 10:26 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Flávio Bolsonaro in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling from mid-September places Flávio Bolsonaro, the Liberal Party candidate and standard-bearer for the right-wing movement, in the 34–42% range for the October 4 first round, with multiple surveys clustering near or above 36%. This positioning reflects strong consolidation of conservative and Bolsonarista voters behind the senator amid a polarized contest against President Lula, limited vote splitting among other right-leaning contenders, and campaign momentum from recent events including Bolsa Família criticism. Trader consensus on a 39%+ outcome aligns with these aggregates and the absence of major late shifts that would erode his base before voting begins.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Flávio Bolsonaro in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Flávio Bolsonaro in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$50,652Date de fin
5 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 15, 2026, 10:26 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling from mid-September places Flávio Bolsonaro, the Liberal Party candidate and standard-bearer for the right-wing movement, in the 34–42% range for the October 4 first round, with multiple surveys clustering near or above 36%. This positioning reflects strong consolidation of conservative and Bolsonarista voters behind the senator amid a polarized contest against President Lula, limited vote splitting among other right-leaning contenders, and campaign momentum from recent events including Bolsa Família criticism. Trader consensus on a 39%+ outcome aligns with these aggregates and the absence of major late shifts that would erode his base before voting begins.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourConnexes
Lula obtiendra-t-il entre 41 % et 44 % des suffrages valides au premier tour de l'élection présidentielle brésilienne de 2026 ?
41%
Oui
Renan Santos obtiendra-t-il entre 2 % et 4 % des votes valides au premier tour de l'élection présidentielle brésilienne de 2026 ?
45%
Oui
Augusto Cury obtiendra-t-il entre 4 % et 6 % des suffrages valides au premier tour de l'élection présidentielle brésilienne de 2026 ?
42%
Oui
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