Brazil’s Q3 2026 GDP growth faces headwinds from decelerating domestic demand after Q2’s 0.5% QoQ expansion masked contracting household consumption and reliance on inventories. The Central Bank’s fifth consecutive 25-basis-point Selic cut to 13.75% on September 16 reflects cooling August inflation at 4.22% YoY alongside softening activity, with nowcasts pointing to near-zero sequential growth amid still-elevated borrowing costs. Market-implied odds cluster around flat-to-mildly positive or negative outcomes because fiscal stimulus effects are fading, the labor market remains resilient yet wages face pressure, and October’s presidential election introduces policy uncertainty. Commodity exports and potential further monetary easing provide limited offsets, leaving the quarter’s print sensitive to incoming retail sales, industrial production, and services data.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour0,0 % à 0,2 % 32%
-0,3 % à -0,1 % 18%
0,3 % à 0,5 % 17.9%
<-0,3 % 8.0%
$12,858 Vol.
$12,858 Vol.
1 déc. 2026
<-0,3 %
12%
-0,3 % à -0,1 %
18%
0,0 % à 0,2 %
32%
0,3 % à 0,5 %
18%
0,6 % à 0,8 %
5%
0,9 % à 1,1 %
5%
≥1,2 %
<1%
0,0 % à 0,2 % 32%
-0,3 % à -0,1 % 18%
0,3 % à 0,5 % 17.9%
<-0,3 % 8.0%
$12,858 Vol.
$12,858 Vol.
1 déc. 2026
<-0,3 %
$225 Vol.
12%
-0,3 % à -0,1 %
$2,248 Vol.
18%
0,0 % à 0,2 %
$7,807 Vol.
32%
0,3 % à 0,5 %
$1,928 Vol.
18%
0,6 % à 0,8 %
$214 Vol.
5%
0,9 % à 1,1 %
$235 Vol.
5%
≥1,2 %
$202 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the prior quarter (GDP at market prices, %) in the 3rd quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on December 2, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlBrazil’s Q3 2026 GDP growth faces headwinds from decelerating domestic demand after Q2’s 0.5% QoQ expansion masked contracting household consumption and reliance on inventories. The Central Bank’s fifth consecutive 25-basis-point Selic cut to 13.75% on September 16 reflects cooling August inflation at 4.22% YoY alongside softening activity, with nowcasts pointing to near-zero sequential growth amid still-elevated borrowing costs. Market-implied odds cluster around flat-to-mildly positive or negative outcomes because fiscal stimulus effects are fading, the labor market remains resilient yet wages face pressure, and October’s presidential election introduces policy uncertainty. Commodity exports and potential further monetary easing provide limited offsets, leaving the quarter’s print sensitive to incoming retail sales, industrial production, and services data.
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the prior quarter (GDP at market prices, %) in the 3rd quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on December 2, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Marché ouvert : Sep 8, 2026, 7:35 PM ET
Volume
$12,858Date de fin
2 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 8, 2026, 7:35 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the prior quarter (GDP at market prices, %) in the 3rd quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on December 2, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlBrazil’s Q3 2026 GDP growth faces headwinds from decelerating domestic demand after Q2’s 0.5% QoQ expansion masked contracting household consumption and reliance on inventories. The Central Bank’s fifth consecutive 25-basis-point Selic cut to 13.75% on September 16 reflects cooling August inflation at 4.22% YoY alongside softening activity, with nowcasts pointing to near-zero sequential growth amid still-elevated borrowing costs. Market-implied odds cluster around flat-to-mildly positive or negative outcomes because fiscal stimulus effects are fading, the labor market remains resilient yet wages face pressure, and October’s presidential election introduces policy uncertainty. Commodity exports and potential further monetary easing provide limited offsets, leaving the quarter’s print sensitive to incoming retail sales, industrial production, and services data.
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the prior quarter (GDP at market prices, %) in the 3rd quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on December 2, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Volume
$12,858Date de fin
2 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 8, 2026, 7:35 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Brazil’s Q3 2026 GDP growth faces headwinds from decelerating domestic demand after Q2’s 0.5% QoQ expansion masked contracting household consumption and reliance on inventories. The Central Bank’s fifth consecutive 25-basis-point Selic cut to 13.75% on September 16 reflects cooling August inflation at 4.22% YoY alongside softening activity, with nowcasts pointing to near-zero sequential growth amid still-elevated borrowing costs. Market-implied odds cluster around flat-to-mildly positive or negative outcomes because fiscal stimulus effects are fading, the labor market remains resilient yet wages face pressure, and October’s presidential election introduces policy uncertainty. Commodity exports and potential further monetary easing provide limited offsets, leaving the quarter’s print sensitive to incoming retail sales, industrial production, and services data.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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