Trader consensus on Polymarket prices UK annual GDP growth for 2026 in a narrow 0-1% (43.5%) to 1-2% (38.4%) range, reflecting April 2026 IMF and OECD forecasts downgraded to 0.8% and 0.7%, respectively—the sharpest cuts among G7 economies—driven by Middle East tensions spiking oil prices, sticky inflation above 3%, and rising 10-year gilt yields amid fiscal pressures. February 2026 monthly GDP beat estimates at +0.5%, lifting Q1 headline growth to an estimated 0.5% per Bank of England, but underlying momentum remains subdued at 0.2%. Elevated <0% odds (34.5%) capture recession risks from geopolitical shocks and budgetary tightening, while 4-5% pricing (36.4%) hedges potential productivity rebounds; Q1 full data due late May could shift sentiment ahead of June BoE meeting.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour2-3 % 6.0%
3-4 % 4.2%
<0 0
0-1 % 0
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
12 févr. 2027
<0
39%
0-1 %
45%
1-2 %
33%
2-3 %
7%
3-4 %
6%
4-5 %
40%
5 %+
27%
2-3 % 6.0%
3-4 % 4.2%
<0 0
0-1 % 0
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
12 févr. 2027
<0
$345 Vol.
39%
0-1 %
$381 Vol.
45%
1-2 %
$210 Vol.
33%
2-3 %
$247 Vol.
7%
3-4 %
$201 Vol.
6%
4-5 %
$423 Vol.
40%
5 %+
$252 Vol.
27%
This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices UK annual GDP growth for 2026 in a narrow 0-1% (43.5%) to 1-2% (38.4%) range, reflecting April 2026 IMF and OECD forecasts downgraded to 0.8% and 0.7%, respectively—the sharpest cuts among G7 economies—driven by Middle East tensions spiking oil prices, sticky inflation above 3%, and rising 10-year gilt yields amid fiscal pressures. February 2026 monthly GDP beat estimates at +0.5%, lifting Q1 headline growth to an estimated 0.5% per Bank of England, but underlying momentum remains subdued at 0.2%. Elevated <0% odds (34.5%) capture recession risks from geopolitical shocks and budgetary tightening, while 4-5% pricing (36.4%) hedges potential productivity rebounds; Q1 full data due late May could shift sentiment ahead of June BoE meeting.
This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Jan 22, 2026, 10:27 AM ET
Volume
$2,058Date de fin
12 févr. 2027Marché ouvert
Jan 22, 2026, 10:27 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices UK annual GDP growth for 2026 in a narrow 0-1% (43.5%) to 1-2% (38.4%) range, reflecting April 2026 IMF and OECD forecasts downgraded to 0.8% and 0.7%, respectively—the sharpest cuts among G7 economies—driven by Middle East tensions spiking oil prices, sticky inflation above 3%, and rising 10-year gilt yields amid fiscal pressures. February 2026 monthly GDP beat estimates at +0.5%, lifting Q1 headline growth to an estimated 0.5% per Bank of England, but underlying momentum remains subdued at 0.2%. Elevated <0% odds (34.5%) capture recession risks from geopolitical shocks and budgetary tightening, while 4-5% pricing (36.4%) hedges potential productivity rebounds; Q1 full data due late May could shift sentiment ahead of June BoE meeting.
This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$2,058Date de fin
12 févr. 2027Marché ouvert
Jan 22, 2026, 10:27 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices UK annual GDP growth for 2026 in a narrow 0-1% (43.5%) to 1-2% (38.4%) range, reflecting April 2026 IMF and OECD forecasts downgraded to 0.8% and 0.7%, respectively—the sharpest cuts among G7 economies—driven by Middle East tensions spiking oil prices, sticky inflation above 3%, and rising 10-year gilt yields amid fiscal pressures. February 2026 monthly GDP beat estimates at +0.5%, lifting Q1 headline growth to an estimated 0.5% per Bank of England, but underlying momentum remains subdued at 0.2%. Elevated <0% odds (34.5%) capture recession risks from geopolitical shocks and budgetary tightening, while 4-5% pricing (36.4%) hedges potential productivity rebounds; Q1 full data due late May could shift sentiment ahead of June BoE meeting.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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