Recent developments in UK GDP growth forecasts center on the energy price shock from Middle East conflict, which has elevated inflation expectations and weighed on real incomes. Official data showed 2025 full-year growth at 1.3%, with Q1 2026 expanding 0.6% quarter-on-quarter, while IMF and OECD projections for 2026 cluster between 0.8% and 1.1% after downward revisions of up to 0.5 percentage points earlier in the year. The IMF's July update slightly raised its 2026 call to 1.0% as some conflict-related risks eased, though Bank of England analysis points to CPI inflation rising toward 3.2% by year-end. These factors underpin market-implied odds favoring the 1-2% range at 55%, with 0-1% at 29%, reflecting trader consensus on subdued expansion amid tighter financial conditions and persistent inflationary pressures.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour1-2 % 55.0%
0-1 % 29%
<0 4.7%
2-3 % 4.3%
$71,273 Vol.
$71,273 Vol.
12 févr. 2027
<0
5%
0-1 %
29%
1-2 %
55%
2-3 %
4%
3-4 %
2%
4-5 %
<1%
5 %+
<1%
1-2 % 55.0%
0-1 % 29%
<0 4.7%
2-3 % 4.3%
$71,273 Vol.
$71,273 Vol.
12 févr. 2027
<0
$11,048 Vol.
5%
0-1 %
$18,529 Vol.
29%
1-2 %
$22,882 Vol.
55%
2-3 %
$4,139 Vol.
4%
3-4 %
$3,126 Vol.
2%
4-5 %
$8,268 Vol.
<1%
5 %+
$3,282 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent developments in UK GDP growth forecasts center on the energy price shock from Middle East conflict, which has elevated inflation expectations and weighed on real incomes. Official data showed 2025 full-year growth at 1.3%, with Q1 2026 expanding 0.6% quarter-on-quarter, while IMF and OECD projections for 2026 cluster between 0.8% and 1.1% after downward revisions of up to 0.5 percentage points earlier in the year. The IMF's July update slightly raised its 2026 call to 1.0% as some conflict-related risks eased, though Bank of England analysis points to CPI inflation rising toward 3.2% by year-end. These factors underpin market-implied odds favoring the 1-2% range at 55%, with 0-1% at 29%, reflecting trader consensus on subdued expansion amid tighter financial conditions and persistent inflationary pressures.
This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Jan 22, 2026, 10:27 AM ET
Volume
$71,273Date de fin
12 févr. 2027Marché ouvert
Jan 22, 2026, 10:27 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent developments in UK GDP growth forecasts center on the energy price shock from Middle East conflict, which has elevated inflation expectations and weighed on real incomes. Official data showed 2025 full-year growth at 1.3%, with Q1 2026 expanding 0.6% quarter-on-quarter, while IMF and OECD projections for 2026 cluster between 0.8% and 1.1% after downward revisions of up to 0.5 percentage points earlier in the year. The IMF's July update slightly raised its 2026 call to 1.0% as some conflict-related risks eased, though Bank of England analysis points to CPI inflation rising toward 3.2% by year-end. These factors underpin market-implied odds favoring the 1-2% range at 55%, with 0-1% at 29%, reflecting trader consensus on subdued expansion amid tighter financial conditions and persistent inflationary pressures.
This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$71,273Date de fin
12 févr. 2027Marché ouvert
Jan 22, 2026, 10:27 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent developments in UK GDP growth forecasts center on the energy price shock from Middle East conflict, which has elevated inflation expectations and weighed on real incomes. Official data showed 2025 full-year growth at 1.3%, with Q1 2026 expanding 0.6% quarter-on-quarter, while IMF and OECD projections for 2026 cluster between 0.8% and 1.1% after downward revisions of up to 0.5 percentage points earlier in the year. The IMF's July update slightly raised its 2026 call to 1.0% as some conflict-related risks eased, though Bank of England analysis points to CPI inflation rising toward 3.2% by year-end. These factors underpin market-implied odds favoring the 1-2% range at 55%, with 0-1% at 29%, reflecting trader consensus on subdued expansion amid tighter financial conditions and persistent inflationary pressures.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes