Mexico's Q3 2026 GDP growth faces elevated uncertainty, reflected in evenly matched market-implied odds across all outcome bins. The economy rebounded sharply to 1.5% quarter-over-quarter in Q2 after contracting 0.6% in Q1, supported by manufacturing and services momentum, yet full-year 2026 consensus forecasts cluster around 1.2-1.7% amid weak domestic demand and subdued investment. Banxico's 6.50% policy rate and easing headline inflation near 3.55% provide some support, but upside risks from persistent core pressures and potential USMCA renegotiation effects on exports create offsetting downside threats. Traders appear to price in no dominant catalyst through September, with quarterly outcomes hinging on near-term U.S. demand, remittances, and any policy shifts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour0.5-1.0% 50%
1.0-1.5% 50%
1.5-2.0% 50%
2.0-2.5% 50%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
30 oct. 2026
<0.5%
50%
0.5-1.0%
50%
1.0-1.5%
50%
1.5-2.0%
50%
2.0-2.5%
50%
2.5-3.0%
50%
3.0-3.5%
50%
3.5%+
50%
0.5-1.0% 50%
1.0-1.5% 50%
1.5-2.0% 50%
2.0-2.5% 50%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
30 oct. 2026
<0.5%
$1 Vol.
50%
0.5-1.0%
$0 Vol.
50%
1.0-1.5%
$0 Vol.
50%
1.5-2.0%
$0 Vol.
50%
2.0-2.5%
$0 Vol.
50%
2.5-3.0%
$0 Vol.
50%
3.0-3.5%
$0 Vol.
50%
3.5%+
$0 Vol.
50%
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on October 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Mexico's Q3 2026 GDP growth faces elevated uncertainty, reflected in evenly matched market-implied odds across all outcome bins. The economy rebounded sharply to 1.5% quarter-over-quarter in Q2 after contracting 0.6% in Q1, supported by manufacturing and services momentum, yet full-year 2026 consensus forecasts cluster around 1.2-1.7% amid weak domestic demand and subdued investment. Banxico's 6.50% policy rate and easing headline inflation near 3.55% provide some support, but upside risks from persistent core pressures and potential USMCA renegotiation effects on exports create offsetting downside threats. Traders appear to price in no dominant catalyst through September, with quarterly outcomes hinging on near-term U.S. demand, remittances, and any policy shifts.
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on October 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
Volume
$1Date de fin
30 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on October 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Mexico's Q3 2026 GDP growth faces elevated uncertainty, reflected in evenly matched market-implied odds across all outcome bins. The economy rebounded sharply to 1.5% quarter-over-quarter in Q2 after contracting 0.6% in Q1, supported by manufacturing and services momentum, yet full-year 2026 consensus forecasts cluster around 1.2-1.7% amid weak domestic demand and subdued investment. Banxico's 6.50% policy rate and easing headline inflation near 3.55% provide some support, but upside risks from persistent core pressures and potential USMCA renegotiation effects on exports create offsetting downside threats. Traders appear to price in no dominant catalyst through September, with quarterly outcomes hinging on near-term U.S. demand, remittances, and any policy shifts.
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on October 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$1Date de fin
30 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Mexico's Q3 2026 GDP growth faces elevated uncertainty, reflected in evenly matched market-implied odds across all outcome bins. The economy rebounded sharply to 1.5% quarter-over-quarter in Q2 after contracting 0.6% in Q1, supported by manufacturing and services momentum, yet full-year 2026 consensus forecasts cluster around 1.2-1.7% amid weak domestic demand and subdued investment. Banxico's 6.50% policy rate and easing headline inflation near 3.55% provide some support, but upside risks from persistent core pressures and potential USMCA renegotiation effects on exports create offsetting downside threats. Traders appear to price in no dominant catalyst through September, with quarterly outcomes hinging on near-term U.S. demand, remittances, and any policy shifts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes