Recent upward revisions to second-quarter 2026 U.S. GDP—to a 2.2% annualized rate—and resilient third-quarter nowcasts near 3.7% have supported trader expectations for full-year growth near or above 2.5%, reinforced by strong AI-driven capital spending and consumer outlays. These factors balance against sticky core PCE inflation near 3.0% year-over-year, elevated energy prices from Middle East tensions, and FOMC projections centering on 2.3% fourth-quarter-over-fourth-quarter expansion. The near-even split between the 2.0–2.5% and >2.5% bins reflects uncertainty over whether Q3 momentum and productivity gains will sustain above-trend readings or yield to tighter financial conditions and softer labor data by year-end. Upcoming BEA releases and October FOMC communications remain key near-term catalysts.