Recent quarterly data showing U.S. real GDP expanding at a 1.5% annualized rate in Q2 2026, following a 2.1% Q1 pace, has anchored trader sentiment around the 1.5–2.5% range for full-year growth. Consensus forecasts from institutions such as the CBO and private economists cluster near 2.1–2.3%, reflecting resilient business investment in AI-driven capital spending and supportive fiscal measures that offset headwinds from elevated tariffs, sticky inflation, and energy-price volatility. With the two central bins commanding 67% combined implied probability, markets price in moderate expansion while remaining sensitive to Q3 GDP releases, labor-market readings, and any shifts in Federal Reserve policy expectations that could tilt outcomes toward the upper or lower end of the distribution.