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Économie·Politique économique

Croissance du PIB en 2026

icon for Croissance du PIB en 2026
Économie·Politique économique

Croissance du PIB en 2026

juil. 30

janv. 29, 2027

juil. 30

janv. 29, 2027

>2,5 % 43%

<0,5 % 26.8%

2,0–2,5 % 19%

1,5–2,0 % 16.9%

Polymarket

$28,075 Vol.

>2,5 % 43%

<0,5 % 26.8%

2,0–2,5 % 19%

1,5–2,0 % 16.9%

Polymarket

$28,075 Vol.

<0,5 %

$3,879 Vol.

27%

0,5–1,0 %

$15,278 Vol.

12%

1,0–1,5 %

$1,535 Vol.

12%

1,5–2,0 %

$1,504 Vol.

17%

2,0–2,5 %

$1,819 Vol.

24%

>2,5 %

$4,061 Vol.

43%

This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 43.5% implied probability for US GDP growth exceeding 2.5% in 2026, driven by the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow surging to 4.0% annualized for Q2 as of May 14—up from 3.7%—following Q1's solid 2.0% advance estimate that rebounded from Q4 2025's 0.5%. This positions >2.5% as the frontrunner amid resilient consumer spending and business investment. However, a 30.4% chance of sub-0.5% contraction reflects risks from April CPI inflation accelerating to 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since May 2023—steady 4.3% unemployment, and Fed funds rate holding near 3.6%, with traders eyeing fiscal uncertainties and policy tightening ahead of June FOMC. The 2.0–2.5% band at 22.5% aligns with economist forecasts around 2.2%.

This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product

Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$28,075
Date de fin
29 janv. 2027
Marché ouvert
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 43.5% implied probability for US GDP growth exceeding 2.5% in 2026, driven by the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow surging to 4.0% annualized for Q2 as of May 14—up from 3.7%—following Q1's solid 2.0% advance estimate that rebounded from Q4 2025's 0.5%. This positions >2.5% as the frontrunner amid resilient consumer spending and business investment. However, a 30.4% chance of sub-0.5% contraction reflects risks from April CPI inflation accelerating to 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since May 2023—steady 4.3% unemployment, and Fed funds rate holding near 3.6%, with traders eyeing fiscal uncertainties and policy tightening ahead of June FOMC. The 2.0–2.5% band at 22.5% aligns with economist forecasts around 2.2%.

This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product

Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$28,075
Date de fin
29 janv. 2027
Marché ouvert
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.

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Questions fréquentes

« Croissance du PIB en 2026 » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 6 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « >2,5 % » à 43%, suivi de « <0,5 % » à 27%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 43¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 43% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

À ce jour, « Croissance du PIB en 2026 » a généré $28.1K en volume total de trading depuis le lancement du marché le Nov 12, 2025. Ce niveau d'activité reflète un fort engagement de la communauté Polymarket et garantit que les cotes actuelles sont alimentées par un large bassin de participants. Vous pouvez suivre les mouvements de prix en direct et trader sur n'importe quel résultat directement sur cette page.

Pour trader sur « Croissance du PIB en 2026 », parcourez les 6 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « Croissance du PIB en 2026 » est « >2,5 % » à 43%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 43% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « <0,5 % » à 27%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Croissance du PIB en 2026 » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.