Robust U.S. economic data through mid-2026 underpin the 92.5% market-implied odds against a recession by year-end. Real GDP expanded at a 1.5% annualized rate in Q2, supported by business investment in AI infrastructure that offsets softer consumer spending amid elevated prices. The unemployment rate has stabilized near 4.3-4.5%, while headline CPI eased to 3.4% year-over-year in July with core measures around 2.5%. Official smoothed recession probabilities remain below 1%, and forecasters project continued positive though uneven growth. Traders price in this resilience despite the Fed holding the funds rate at 3.5-3.75% and monitoring inflation risks. Potential challenges include sharper labor-market deterioration, renewed energy-price spikes from geopolitical tensions, or policy missteps that could tip the economy into contraction.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourRécession américaine d'ici la fin de 2026 ?
Récession américaine d'ici la fin de 2026 ?
Oui
8% chance
$1,703,895 Vol.
$1,703,895 Vol.
31 janv. 2027
Oui
8% chance
$1,703,895 Vol.
$1,703,895 Vol.
31 janv. 2027
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-productRobust U.S. economic data through mid-2026 underpin the 92.5% market-implied odds against a recession by year-end. Real GDP expanded at a 1.5% annualized rate in Q2, supported by business investment in AI infrastructure that offsets softer consumer spending amid elevated prices. The unemployment rate has stabilized near 4.3-4.5%, while headline CPI eased to 3.4% year-over-year in July with core measures around 2.5%. Official smoothed recession probabilities remain below 1%, and forecasters project continued positive though uneven growth. Traders price in this resilience despite the Fed holding the funds rate at 3.5-3.75% and monitoring inflation risks. Potential challenges include sharper labor-market deterioration, renewed energy-price spikes from geopolitical tensions, or policy missteps that could tip the economy into contraction.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Marché ouvert : Sep 29, 2025, 6:26 PM ET
Volume
$1,703,895Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 29, 2025, 6:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-productRobust U.S. economic data through mid-2026 underpin the 92.5% market-implied odds against a recession by year-end. Real GDP expanded at a 1.5% annualized rate in Q2, supported by business investment in AI infrastructure that offsets softer consumer spending amid elevated prices. The unemployment rate has stabilized near 4.3-4.5%, while headline CPI eased to 3.4% year-over-year in July with core measures around 2.5%. Official smoothed recession probabilities remain below 1%, and forecasters project continued positive though uneven growth. Traders price in this resilience despite the Fed holding the funds rate at 3.5-3.75% and monitoring inflation risks. Potential challenges include sharper labor-market deterioration, renewed energy-price spikes from geopolitical tensions, or policy missteps that could tip the economy into contraction.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Volume
$1,703,895Date de fin
31 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Sep 29, 2025, 6:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Robust U.S. economic data through mid-2026 underpin the 92.5% market-implied odds against a recession by year-end. Real GDP expanded at a 1.5% annualized rate in Q2, supported by business investment in AI infrastructure that offsets softer consumer spending amid elevated prices. The unemployment rate has stabilized near 4.3-4.5%, while headline CPI eased to 3.4% year-over-year in July with core measures around 2.5%. Official smoothed recession probabilities remain below 1%, and forecasters project continued positive though uneven growth. Traders price in this resilience despite the Fed holding the funds rate at 3.5-3.75% and monitoring inflation risks. Potential challenges include sharper labor-market deterioration, renewed energy-price spikes from geopolitical tensions, or policy missteps that could tip the economy into contraction.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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