Traders pricing an 87% implied probability of no change at the Bank of England’s June 18 meeting reflect the Monetary Policy Committee’s cautious stance amid March 2026 CPI inflation rising to 3.3% year-over-year, driven by energy price surges from the Middle East conflict. The April 30 hold at 3.75% by an 8-1 vote underscored balancing sticky inflation above the 2% target against slowing wage growth and softer growth forecasts. Market-implied odds of a 25 basis point hike at just 12.5% capture upside risks to second-round effects, while negligible probabilities for cuts signal that recent data have tempered earlier easing expectations. Key upcoming catalysts include April CPI and May labor market releases, which will shape the MPC’s assessment of whether persistent energy-driven pressures warrant any policy adjustment.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourDécision de la Banque d'Angleterre en juin ?
Pas de changement 87%
Augmentation de 25 points de base 13%
Baisse de plus de 50 points de base <1%
Baisse de 25 points de base <1%
$125,837 Vol.
$125,837 Vol.
Baisse de plus de 50 points de base
<1%
Baisse de 25 points de base
<1%
Pas de changement
87%
Augmentation de 25 points de base
13%
Augmentation de plus de 50 points de base
<1%
Pas de changement 87%
Augmentation de 25 points de base 13%
Baisse de plus de 50 points de base <1%
Baisse de 25 points de base <1%
$125,837 Vol.
$125,837 Vol.
Baisse de plus de 50 points de base
<1%
Baisse de 25 points de base
<1%
Pas de changement
87%
Augmentation de 25 points de base
13%
Augmentation de plus de 50 points de base
<1%
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the Bank Rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of England's June 2026 meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of England (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the Bank Rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of England's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the start date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Marché ouvert : Mar 24, 2026, 7:31 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the Bank Rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of England's June 2026 meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of England (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the Bank Rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of England's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the start date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders pricing an 87% implied probability of no change at the Bank of England’s June 18 meeting reflect the Monetary Policy Committee’s cautious stance amid March 2026 CPI inflation rising to 3.3% year-over-year, driven by energy price surges from the Middle East conflict. The April 30 hold at 3.75% by an 8-1 vote underscored balancing sticky inflation above the 2% target against slowing wage growth and softer growth forecasts. Market-implied odds of a 25 basis point hike at just 12.5% capture upside risks to second-round effects, while negligible probabilities for cuts signal that recent data have tempered earlier easing expectations. Key upcoming catalysts include April CPI and May labor market releases, which will shape the MPC’s assessment of whether persistent energy-driven pressures warrant any policy adjustment.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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