Argentina's April 2026 monthly CPI eased to 2.6% from March's 3.4% oil-shock spike—marking the first slowdown in 11 months per INDEC data released May 14—driving Polymarket's tight contest, with trader consensus implying 43.5% odds for May inflation at 2.2–2.4% edging 40.5% for 3.1–3.3% and 37.0% for 2.5–2.7%. Fiscal austerity under President Milei bolsters lower bins via spending cuts and peso stabilization, but higher bins price in rebound risks from transport/energy prices (up 4.4% in April), wage pass-through, and elevated inflation expectations at 34%. Central bank REM survey (May 7) raised end-2026 forecasts to 30.5%, highlighting uncertainty; watch mid-June INDEC release for resolution catalyst.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour2.2–2.4% 53%
≤2,1 % 24%
2.5–2.7% 24%
3.1–3.3% 23%
$46,532 Vol.
$46,532 Vol.
≤2,1 %
24%
2.2–2.4%
44%
2.5–2.7%
24%
2.8–3.0%
11%
3.1–3.3%
23%
3.4–3.6%
23%
3.7–3.9%
15%
4.0%+
10%
2.2–2.4% 53%
≤2,1 % 24%
2.5–2.7% 24%
3.1–3.3% 23%
$46,532 Vol.
$46,532 Vol.
≤2,1 %
24%
2.2–2.4%
44%
2.5–2.7%
24%
2.8–3.0%
11%
3.1–3.3%
23%
3.4–3.6%
23%
3.7–3.9%
15%
4.0%+
10%
This market will resolve according to the monthly percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI / IPC) in May 2026 (Variación % mensual Total nacional), according to the monthly INDEC report.
The resolution source for this market will be the INDEC Consumer Price Index report released for May 2026 (https://www.indec.gob.ar/), currently scheduled to be released on June 11, 2026.
Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by clicking on the "Precios al Consumidor" option on the home page of https://www.indec.gob.ar/, and searching the PDF for the figure under "Variación % mensual Total nacional".
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly INDEC CPI (IPC) news release, which reports monthly inflation change to only one decimal point (e.g., 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Marché ouvert : May 13, 2026, 5:13 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the monthly percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI / IPC) in May 2026 (Variación % mensual Total nacional), according to the monthly INDEC report.
The resolution source for this market will be the INDEC Consumer Price Index report released for May 2026 (https://www.indec.gob.ar/), currently scheduled to be released on June 11, 2026.
Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by clicking on the "Precios al Consumidor" option on the home page of https://www.indec.gob.ar/, and searching the PDF for the figure under "Variación % mensual Total nacional".
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly INDEC CPI (IPC) news release, which reports monthly inflation change to only one decimal point (e.g., 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Argentina's April 2026 monthly CPI eased to 2.6% from March's 3.4% oil-shock spike—marking the first slowdown in 11 months per INDEC data released May 14—driving Polymarket's tight contest, with trader consensus implying 43.5% odds for May inflation at 2.2–2.4% edging 40.5% for 3.1–3.3% and 37.0% for 2.5–2.7%. Fiscal austerity under President Milei bolsters lower bins via spending cuts and peso stabilization, but higher bins price in rebound risks from transport/energy prices (up 4.4% in April), wage pass-through, and elevated inflation expectations at 34%. Central bank REM survey (May 7) raised end-2026 forecasts to 30.5%, highlighting uncertainty; watch mid-June INDEC release for resolution catalyst.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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