Germany’s subdued Q2 2026 GDP outlook reflects the sharp downward revisions to full-year forecasts triggered by the Iran conflict’s energy-price shock. The government halved its 2026 growth projection to 0.5 percent in late April, while leading institutes cut estimates to 0.6 percent, citing higher oil and gas costs that offset fiscal stimulus. Q1 growth of 0.3 percent quarter-on-quarter provides a modest base, yet traders assign roughly equal 47 percent implied probabilities to outcomes at or below 0.3 percent, underscoring uncertainty over whether the energy headwind will intensify or ease. Key swing factors include May-June inflation prints and any additional central-bank guidance on monetary easing. Market-implied odds therefore capture a narrow range of plausible near-term growth paths rather than a decisive consensus.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour0.4-0.6% 51%
1.0-1.2% 47%
1.3%+ 41%
0.7-0.9% 25%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
30 juil. 2026
≤0.0%
48%
0.1-0.3%
47%
0.4-0.6%
27%
0.7-0.9%
25%
1.0-1.2%
47%
1.3%+
41%
0.4-0.6% 51%
1.0-1.2% 47%
1.3%+ 41%
0.7-0.9% 25%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
30 juil. 2026
≤0.0%
$8 Vol.
48%
0.1-0.3%
$5 Vol.
47%
0.4-0.6%
$4 Vol.
27%
0.7-0.9%
$0 Vol.
25%
1.0-1.2%
$0 Vol.
47%
1.3%+
$0 Vol.
41%
This market will resolve according to the German GDP growth rate (% change) on the same quarter a year earlier, price adjusted, as reported in the first release of the Destatis Gross Domestic Product press release for Q2 of 2026, expected to be released on July 30, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Germany’s subdued Q2 2026 GDP outlook reflects the sharp downward revisions to full-year forecasts triggered by the Iran conflict’s energy-price shock. The government halved its 2026 growth projection to 0.5 percent in late April, while leading institutes cut estimates to 0.6 percent, citing higher oil and gas costs that offset fiscal stimulus. Q1 growth of 0.3 percent quarter-on-quarter provides a modest base, yet traders assign roughly equal 47 percent implied probabilities to outcomes at or below 0.3 percent, underscoring uncertainty over whether the energy headwind will intensify or ease. Key swing factors include May-June inflation prints and any additional central-bank guidance on monetary easing. Market-implied odds therefore capture a narrow range of plausible near-term growth paths rather than a decisive consensus.
This market will resolve according to the German GDP growth rate (% change) on the same quarter a year earlier, price adjusted, as reported in the first release of the Destatis Gross Domestic Product press release for Q2 of 2026, expected to be released on July 30, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : May 4, 2026, 11:46 AM ET
Volume
$17Date de fin
30 juil. 2026Marché ouvert
May 4, 2026, 11:46 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the German GDP growth rate (% change) on the same quarter a year earlier, price adjusted, as reported in the first release of the Destatis Gross Domestic Product press release for Q2 of 2026, expected to be released on July 30, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Germany’s subdued Q2 2026 GDP outlook reflects the sharp downward revisions to full-year forecasts triggered by the Iran conflict’s energy-price shock. The government halved its 2026 growth projection to 0.5 percent in late April, while leading institutes cut estimates to 0.6 percent, citing higher oil and gas costs that offset fiscal stimulus. Q1 growth of 0.3 percent quarter-on-quarter provides a modest base, yet traders assign roughly equal 47 percent implied probabilities to outcomes at or below 0.3 percent, underscoring uncertainty over whether the energy headwind will intensify or ease. Key swing factors include May-June inflation prints and any additional central-bank guidance on monetary easing. Market-implied odds therefore capture a narrow range of plausible near-term growth paths rather than a decisive consensus.
This market will resolve according to the German GDP growth rate (% change) on the same quarter a year earlier, price adjusted, as reported in the first release of the Destatis Gross Domestic Product press release for Q2 of 2026, expected to be released on July 30, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$17Date de fin
30 juil. 2026Marché ouvert
May 4, 2026, 11:46 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Germany’s subdued Q2 2026 GDP outlook reflects the sharp downward revisions to full-year forecasts triggered by the Iran conflict’s energy-price shock. The government halved its 2026 growth projection to 0.5 percent in late April, while leading institutes cut estimates to 0.6 percent, citing higher oil and gas costs that offset fiscal stimulus. Q1 growth of 0.3 percent quarter-on-quarter provides a modest base, yet traders assign roughly equal 47 percent implied probabilities to outcomes at or below 0.3 percent, underscoring uncertainty over whether the energy headwind will intensify or ease. Key swing factors include May-June inflation prints and any additional central-bank guidance on monetary easing. Market-implied odds therefore capture a narrow range of plausible near-term growth paths rather than a decisive consensus.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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