Recent U.S. economic data has positioned Q2 2026 GDP growth as a closely contested outcome, with the 2.0–2.5% range holding a modest edge in trader-implied odds. The Q1 advance estimate of 2.0% annualized growth, below consensus forecasts, reflected a rebound in business investment tied to AI-related spending but was offset by softer consumer outlays and a negative net trade contribution. April CPI rising to 3.8% year-over-year, driven by energy price surges linked to Middle East developments, has reinforced concerns over persistent inflation pressures that could limit Federal Reserve easing and dampen spending. Cooling labor market signals, including subdued April payrolls, further temper upside expectations despite the Atlanta Fed GDPNow nowcast near 3.7%. Key near-term catalysts include the May 28 Q1 second estimate, retail sales, and ISM surveys that could shift the distribution of probabilities.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourUS GDP growth in Q2 2026?
US GDP growth in Q2 2026?
2.0–2.5% 25%
2.5–3.0% 22%
1.5–2.0% 19%
3.0–3.5% 15%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
30 juil. 2026
<1.0%
8%
1.0–1.5%
9%
1.5–2.0%
19%
2.0–2.5%
25%
2.5–3.0%
22%
3.0–3.5%
15%
≥3.5%
7%
2.0–2.5% 25%
2.5–3.0% 22%
1.5–2.0% 19%
3.0–3.5% 15%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
30 juil. 2026
<1.0%
$593 Vol.
8%
1.0–1.5%
$353 Vol.
9%
1.5–2.0%
$293 Vol.
19%
2.0–2.5%
$526 Vol.
25%
2.5–3.0%
$410 Vol.
22%
3.0–3.5%
$661 Vol.
15%
≥3.5%
$509 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.Recent U.S. economic data has positioned Q2 2026 GDP growth as a closely contested outcome, with the 2.0–2.5% range holding a modest edge in trader-implied odds. The Q1 advance estimate of 2.0% annualized growth, below consensus forecasts, reflected a rebound in business investment tied to AI-related spending but was offset by softer consumer outlays and a negative net trade contribution. April CPI rising to 3.8% year-over-year, driven by energy price surges linked to Middle East developments, has reinforced concerns over persistent inflation pressures that could limit Federal Reserve easing and dampen spending. Cooling labor market signals, including subdued April payrolls, further temper upside expectations despite the Atlanta Fed GDPNow nowcast near 3.7%. Key near-term catalysts include the May 28 Q1 second estimate, retail sales, and ISM surveys that could shift the distribution of probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
Marché ouvert : Apr 30, 2026, 2:25 PM ET
Volume
$3,345Date de fin
30 juil. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 30, 2026, 2:25 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.Recent U.S. economic data has positioned Q2 2026 GDP growth as a closely contested outcome, with the 2.0–2.5% range holding a modest edge in trader-implied odds. The Q1 advance estimate of 2.0% annualized growth, below consensus forecasts, reflected a rebound in business investment tied to AI-related spending but was offset by softer consumer outlays and a negative net trade contribution. April CPI rising to 3.8% year-over-year, driven by energy price surges linked to Middle East developments, has reinforced concerns over persistent inflation pressures that could limit Federal Reserve easing and dampen spending. Cooling labor market signals, including subdued April payrolls, further temper upside expectations despite the Atlanta Fed GDPNow nowcast near 3.7%. Key near-term catalysts include the May 28 Q1 second estimate, retail sales, and ISM surveys that could shift the distribution of probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
Volume
$3,345Date de fin
30 juil. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 30, 2026, 2:25 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent U.S. economic data has positioned Q2 2026 GDP growth as a closely contested outcome, with the 2.0–2.5% range holding a modest edge in trader-implied odds. The Q1 advance estimate of 2.0% annualized growth, below consensus forecasts, reflected a rebound in business investment tied to AI-related spending but was offset by softer consumer outlays and a negative net trade contribution. April CPI rising to 3.8% year-over-year, driven by energy price surges linked to Middle East developments, has reinforced concerns over persistent inflation pressures that could limit Federal Reserve easing and dampen spending. Cooling labor market signals, including subdued April payrolls, further temper upside expectations despite the Atlanta Fed GDPNow nowcast near 3.7%. Key near-term catalysts include the May 28 Q1 second estimate, retail sales, and ISM surveys that could shift the distribution of probabilities.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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