Persistent inflation and the Federal Reserve's July 29 decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.5–3.75 percent underpin the 54.5 percent market-implied probability on "Other" outcomes and 37 percent on three consecutive pauses through October. June CPI eased to 3.5 percent year-over-year from 4.2 percent in May, yet remained well above the 2 percent target, while the 9–3 FOMC vote—with three members favoring a 25-basis-point hike—signaled divided views on the policy path. Traders price in continued restraint amid anchored but elevated long-term expectations. Key near-term catalysts include the August 12 CPI release and the September FOMC meeting, which could shift probabilities if incoming data alter the inflation trajectory.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOther 55%
Pause–Pause–Pause 37%
Pause–Pause–Cut 3.3%
Pause–Cut–Pause 1.0%
$664,214 Vol.
$664,214 Vol.
28 oct. 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
37%
Pause–Pause–Cut
3%
Pause–Cut–Pause
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
1%
Other
55%
Other 55%
Pause–Pause–Pause 37%
Pause–Pause–Cut 3.3%
Pause–Cut–Pause 1.0%
$664,214 Vol.
$664,214 Vol.
28 oct. 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
$224,173 Vol.
37%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$51,057 Vol.
3%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$31,933 Vol.
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$23,467 Vol.
1%
Other
$290,097 Vol.
55%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPersistent inflation and the Federal Reserve's July 29 decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.5–3.75 percent underpin the 54.5 percent market-implied probability on "Other" outcomes and 37 percent on three consecutive pauses through October. June CPI eased to 3.5 percent year-over-year from 4.2 percent in May, yet remained well above the 2 percent target, while the 9–3 FOMC vote—with three members favoring a 25-basis-point hike—signaled divided views on the policy path. Traders price in continued restraint amid anchored but elevated long-term expectations. Key near-term catalysts include the August 12 CPI release and the September FOMC meeting, which could shift probabilities if incoming data alter the inflation trajectory.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Marché ouvert : Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ET
Volume
$664,214Date de fin
28 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPersistent inflation and the Federal Reserve's July 29 decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.5–3.75 percent underpin the 54.5 percent market-implied probability on "Other" outcomes and 37 percent on three consecutive pauses through October. June CPI eased to 3.5 percent year-over-year from 4.2 percent in May, yet remained well above the 2 percent target, while the 9–3 FOMC vote—with three members favoring a 25-basis-point hike—signaled divided views on the policy path. Traders price in continued restraint amid anchored but elevated long-term expectations. Key near-term catalysts include the August 12 CPI release and the September FOMC meeting, which could shift probabilities if incoming data alter the inflation trajectory.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volume
$664,214Date de fin
28 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent inflation and the Federal Reserve's July 29 decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.5–3.75 percent underpin the 54.5 percent market-implied probability on "Other" outcomes and 37 percent on three consecutive pauses through October. June CPI eased to 3.5 percent year-over-year from 4.2 percent in May, yet remained well above the 2 percent target, while the 9–3 FOMC vote—with three members favoring a 25-basis-point hike—signaled divided views on the policy path. Traders price in continued restraint amid anchored but elevated long-term expectations. Key near-term catalysts include the August 12 CPI release and the September FOMC meeting, which could shift probabilities if incoming data alter the inflation trajectory.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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