Trump’s appointment of Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve Chair in May 2026 anchors the 98.8% market-implied probability against any attempt to remove him this year. As the president’s handpicked successor to Jerome Powell, Warsh enjoys a personal relationship and explicit public backing even after the FOMC’s unanimous September 25-basis-point rate hike to the 3.75–4.00% target range, which defied White House calls for lower rates. Trump attributed the decision to a “hostile” board rather than criticizing Warsh directly and reaffirmed confidence in his independence. Legal protections further reinforce this consensus: Fed governors may be removed only “for cause,” a standard upheld by lower courts and signaled by the Supreme Court in related cases. Tail risks remain limited to extreme, repeated policy clashes or unforeseen legal shifts that could test removal precedents.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour1% chance
$30,017 Vol.
$30,017 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
1% chance
$30,017 Vol.
$30,017 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trump’s appointment of Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve Chair in May 2026 anchors the 98.8% market-implied probability against any attempt to remove him this year. As the president’s handpicked successor to Jerome Powell, Warsh enjoys a personal relationship and explicit public backing even after the FOMC’s unanimous September 25-basis-point rate hike to the 3.75–4.00% target range, which defied White House calls for lower rates. Trump attributed the decision to a “hostile” board rather than criticizing Warsh directly and reaffirmed confidence in his independence. Legal protections further reinforce this consensus: Fed governors may be removed only “for cause,” a standard upheld by lower courts and signaled by the Supreme Court in related cases. Tail risks remain limited to extreme, repeated policy clashes or unforeseen legal shifts that could test removal precedents.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Jul 24, 2026, 11:56 AM ET
Volume
$30,017Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Jul 24, 2026, 11:56 AM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trump’s appointment of Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve Chair in May 2026 anchors the 98.8% market-implied probability against any attempt to remove him this year. As the president’s handpicked successor to Jerome Powell, Warsh enjoys a personal relationship and explicit public backing even after the FOMC’s unanimous September 25-basis-point rate hike to the 3.75–4.00% target range, which defied White House calls for lower rates. Trump attributed the decision to a “hostile” board rather than criticizing Warsh directly and reaffirmed confidence in his independence. Legal protections further reinforce this consensus: Fed governors may be removed only “for cause,” a standard upheld by lower courts and signaled by the Supreme Court in related cases. Tail risks remain limited to extreme, repeated policy clashes or unforeseen legal shifts that could test removal precedents.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$30,017Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Jul 24, 2026, 11:56 AM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...Trump’s appointment of Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve Chair in May 2026 anchors the 98.8% market-implied probability against any attempt to remove him this year. As the president’s handpicked successor to Jerome Powell, Warsh enjoys a personal relationship and explicit public backing even after the FOMC’s unanimous September 25-basis-point rate hike to the 3.75–4.00% target range, which defied White House calls for lower rates. Trump attributed the decision to a “hostile” board rather than criticizing Warsh directly and reaffirmed confidence in his independence. Legal protections further reinforce this consensus: Fed governors may be removed only “for cause,” a standard upheld by lower courts and signaled by the Supreme Court in related cases. Tail risks remain limited to extreme, repeated policy clashes or unforeseen legal shifts that could test removal precedents.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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