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icon for Décisions de la Fed (sept-déc)
Économie·FED

Décisions de la Fed (sept-déc)

icon for Décisions de la Fed (sept-déc)
Économie·FED

Décisions de la Fed (sept-déc)

sept. 16

oct. 28

déc. 9

sept. 16

oct. 28

déc. 9

Hausse–Pause–Hausse 24%

Augmenter–Pause–Pause 20%

Pause–Pause–Hausse 17%

Hausse–Hausse–Pause 12%

Polymarket
NOUVEAU

Hausse–Pause–Hausse 24%

Augmenter–Pause–Pause 20%

Pause–Pause–Hausse 17%

Hausse–Hausse–Pause 12%

Polymarket
NOUVEAU

Hausse–Pause–Hausse

$40 Vol.

24%

Augmenter–Pause–Pause

$41 Vol.

20%

Relèvement–Relèvement–Relèvement

$25 Vol.

7%

Hausse–Hausse–Pause

$25 Vol.

12%

Pause–Pause–Hausse

$25 Vol.

17%

Pause–Pause–Pause

$25 Vol.

11%

Pause–Hausse–Hausse

$25 Vol.

7%

Pause–Hausse–Pause

$42 Vol.

9%

Autre

$25 Vol.

5%

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9. A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other". Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm**Persistent above-target inflation remains the dominant driver of trader sentiment in the Fed decisions (Sep–Dec) market.** With the federal funds target range anchored at 3.50–3.75% and July PCE inflation holding at 3.7% year-over-year (core at 3.3%), markets price in a meaningful probability of 25-basis-point hikes at upcoming FOMC meetings. Recent communications from Chair Warsh and the June dot plot—showing a median funds rate of 3.8% by year-end—have reinforced the hawkish tilt amid supply shocks. The closely matched leading outcomes (Hike–Pause–Hike at 23.5%, Hike–Pause–Pause at 20.0%) reflect uncertainty over whether incoming CPI, employment data, and the September projections will sustain or ease pressure for tightening before year-end. Traders are closely watching the September 16 meeting and subsequent releases for signals that could shift the rate path.

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.

A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.

A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.

A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.

If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".

Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.

The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm

The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volume
$273
Date de fin
9 déc. 2026
Marché ouvert
Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ET

Résolveur

0x69c47De9D...
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9. A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other". Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9. A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other". Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm**Persistent above-target inflation remains the dominant driver of trader sentiment in the Fed decisions (Sep–Dec) market.** With the federal funds target range anchored at 3.50–3.75% and July PCE inflation holding at 3.7% year-over-year (core at 3.3%), markets price in a meaningful probability of 25-basis-point hikes at upcoming FOMC meetings. Recent communications from Chair Warsh and the June dot plot—showing a median funds rate of 3.8% by year-end—have reinforced the hawkish tilt amid supply shocks. The closely matched leading outcomes (Hike–Pause–Hike at 23.5%, Hike–Pause–Pause at 20.0%) reflect uncertainty over whether incoming CPI, employment data, and the September projections will sustain or ease pressure for tightening before year-end. Traders are closely watching the September 16 meeting and subsequent releases for signals that could shift the rate path.

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.

A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.

A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.

A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.

If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".

Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.

The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm

The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volume
$273
Date de fin
9 déc. 2026
Marché ouvert
Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ET

Résolveur

0x69c47De9D...
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9. A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other". Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm

Connexes

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Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?

55%
icon for La Fed augmentera-t-elle les taux d'intérêt de 25 pdb après la réunion de septembre 2026 ?

La Fed augmentera-t-elle les taux d'intérêt de 25 pdb après la réunion de septembre 2026 ?

54%
Oui
icon for Quelle sera la prochaine modification du taux de la Fed ?

Quelle sera la prochaine modification du taux de la Fed ?

82%
Hausse

Méfiez-vous des liens externes.

Questions fréquentes

« Décisions de la Fed (sept-déc) » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 9 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « Hausse–Pause–Hausse » à 24%, suivi de « Augmenter–Pause–Pause » à 20%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 24¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 24% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

« Décisions de la Fed (sept-déc) » est un marché nouvellement créé sur Polymarket, lancé le Sep 2, 2026. En tant que marché récent, c'est votre opportunité d'être parmi les premiers traders à définir les cotes et établir les premiers signaux de prix du marché. Vous pouvez également ajouter cette page à vos favoris pour suivre le volume et l'activité de trading au fil du temps.

Pour trader sur « Décisions de la Fed (sept-déc) », parcourez les 9 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « Décisions de la Fed (sept-déc) » est « Hausse–Pause–Hausse » à 24%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 24% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « Augmenter–Pause–Pause » à 20%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Décisions de la Fed (sept-déc) » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.