Trump's second-term stability, reinforced by Republican congressional majorities that have prevented impeachment advances and the absence of credible 25th Amendment invocations or cabinet-level pressure, underpins the 96.3% implied probability against resignation by December 31, 2026. No verified health disclosures, major scandals, or institutional challenges have emerged in recent months to shift this positioning. Trader consensus reflects historical precedent of rare voluntary exits and current evidence of policy continuity amid ongoing legislative and foreign policy priorities. Late developments such as sudden medical events, sustained midterm reversals prompting voluntary departure, or unforeseen legal rulings could still introduce volatility before year-end.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
4% chance
$534,196 Vol.
$534,196 Vol.
30 déc. 2026
Oui
4% chance
$534,196 Vol.
$534,196 Vol.
30 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trump's second-term stability, reinforced by Republican congressional majorities that have prevented impeachment advances and the absence of credible 25th Amendment invocations or cabinet-level pressure, underpins the 96.3% implied probability against resignation by December 31, 2026. No verified health disclosures, major scandals, or institutional challenges have emerged in recent months to shift this positioning. Trader consensus reflects historical precedent of rare voluntary exits and current evidence of policy continuity amid ongoing legislative and foreign policy priorities. Late developments such as sudden medical events, sustained midterm reversals prompting voluntary departure, or unforeseen legal rulings could still introduce volatility before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Marché ouvert : Jul 25, 2025, 2:47 PM ET
Volume
$534,196Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 25, 2025, 2:47 PM ETResolver
0x157Ce2d67...This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trump's second-term stability, reinforced by Republican congressional majorities that have prevented impeachment advances and the absence of credible 25th Amendment invocations or cabinet-level pressure, underpins the 96.3% implied probability against resignation by December 31, 2026. No verified health disclosures, major scandals, or institutional challenges have emerged in recent months to shift this positioning. Trader consensus reflects historical precedent of rare voluntary exits and current evidence of policy continuity amid ongoing legislative and foreign policy priorities. Late developments such as sudden medical events, sustained midterm reversals prompting voluntary departure, or unforeseen legal rulings could still introduce volatility before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$534,196Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 25, 2025, 2:47 PM ETResolver
0x157Ce2d67...Trump's second-term stability, reinforced by Republican congressional majorities that have prevented impeachment advances and the absence of credible 25th Amendment invocations or cabinet-level pressure, underpins the 96.3% implied probability against resignation by December 31, 2026. No verified health disclosures, major scandals, or institutional challenges have emerged in recent months to shift this positioning. Trader consensus reflects historical precedent of rare voluntary exits and current evidence of policy continuity amid ongoing legislative and foreign policy priorities. Late developments such as sudden medical events, sustained midterm reversals prompting voluntary departure, or unforeseen legal rulings could still introduce volatility before year-end.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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