The near-certain trader consensus against a Trump resignation by December 31, 2026, reflects his public commitment to serving out the full term, ongoing policy priorities in the second administration, and absence of acute institutional or personal pressures that historically prompt early exits. Primary factors include stable political positioning, Senate and House dynamics favoring continuity, and no active impeachment proceedings or confirmed health events capable of forcing departure. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include a sudden medical development requiring incapacity determinations, major scandals triggering bipartisan congressional action, or unexpected legal rulings altering eligibility, though each would require rapid escalation beyond current verified developments to meaningfully impact the implied probability before year-end.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
3% chance
$527,810 Vol.
$527,810 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
3% chance
$527,810 Vol.
$527,810 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The near-certain trader consensus against a Trump resignation by December 31, 2026, reflects his public commitment to serving out the full term, ongoing policy priorities in the second administration, and absence of acute institutional or personal pressures that historically prompt early exits. Primary factors include stable political positioning, Senate and House dynamics favoring continuity, and no active impeachment proceedings or confirmed health events capable of forcing departure. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include a sudden medical development requiring incapacity determinations, major scandals triggering bipartisan congressional action, or unexpected legal rulings altering eligibility, though each would require rapid escalation beyond current verified developments to meaningfully impact the implied probability before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Marché ouvert : Jul 25, 2025, 2:47 PM ET
Volume
$527,810Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 25, 2025, 2:47 PM ETResolver
0x157Ce2d67...This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The near-certain trader consensus against a Trump resignation by December 31, 2026, reflects his public commitment to serving out the full term, ongoing policy priorities in the second administration, and absence of acute institutional or personal pressures that historically prompt early exits. Primary factors include stable political positioning, Senate and House dynamics favoring continuity, and no active impeachment proceedings or confirmed health events capable of forcing departure. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include a sudden medical development requiring incapacity determinations, major scandals triggering bipartisan congressional action, or unexpected legal rulings altering eligibility, though each would require rapid escalation beyond current verified developments to meaningfully impact the implied probability before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$527,810Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 25, 2025, 2:47 PM ETResolver
0x157Ce2d67...The near-certain trader consensus against a Trump resignation by December 31, 2026, reflects his public commitment to serving out the full term, ongoing policy priorities in the second administration, and absence of acute institutional or personal pressures that historically prompt early exits. Primary factors include stable political positioning, Senate and House dynamics favoring continuity, and no active impeachment proceedings or confirmed health events capable of forcing departure. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include a sudden medical development requiring incapacity determinations, major scandals triggering bipartisan congressional action, or unexpected legal rulings altering eligibility, though each would require rapid escalation beyond current verified developments to meaningfully impact the implied probability before year-end.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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