This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.Recent cabinet turnover in President Trump’s second term has accelerated since March 2026, with Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem, Attorney General Pam Bondi, and Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer all departing within weeks amid reported frustrations over immigration enforcement, legal priorities including Epstein-related matters, and departmental spending. Additional exits among senior military, immigration, and national security officials have contributed to roughly 20 percent cabinet turnover and 34 percent turnover among top White House aides by early May 2026. These shifts reflect the administration’s emphasis on rapid policy execution in areas such as border security and executive actions, alongside periodic internal realignments. With the 2027 horizon covering the first two years of the term, ongoing legislative battles, potential further personnel reviews, and external pressures from foreign policy developments could influence additional departures.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Recent cabinet turnover in President Trump’s second term has accelerated since March 2026, with Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem, Attorney General Pam Bondi, and Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer all departing within weeks amid reported frustrations over immigration enforcement, legal priorities including Epstein-related matters, and departmental spending. Additional exits among senior military, immigration, and national security officials have contributed to roughly 20 percent cabinet turnover and 34 percent turnover among top White House aides by early May 2026. These shifts reflect the administration’s emphasis on rapid policy execution in areas such as border security and executive actions, alongside periodic internal realignments. With the 2027 horizon covering the first two years of the term, ongoing legislative battles, potential further personnel reviews, and external pressures from foreign policy developments could influence additional departures.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
May 5 2026
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth censures Senator Mark Kelly over military video
Pete Hegseth dips to 37%4%
Pete Hegseth censured Senator Mark Kelly for participating in a video urging troops to resist unlawful orders, escalating political tensions and affecting Hegseth’s market price.
Apr 2 2026
Pam Bondi announces departure as Attorney General amid legal challenges
Susie Wiles jumps to 39%5%
Attorney General Pam Bondi announced her departure following court rulings that challenged the legality of several Trump-appointed prosecutors, including herself. This event influenced the market prices for Bondi and related figures like Lee Zeldin.
Mar 10 2026
Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick linked to Jeffrey Epstein in released files
Howard Lutnick drops to 28%8%
Documents released by the Justice Department revealed Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick planned a visit to Jeffrey Epstein’s private island in 2012, contradicting prior statements. This association led to calls for his resignation and affected his market price.
Feb 27 2026
Trump administration takes punitive action against AI company Anthropic
Pete Hegseth surges to 41%17%
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and the Trump administration sought to declare Anthropic a supply chain risk over a contract dispute, leading to a federal judge blocking the action. White House chief of staff Susie Wiles met with Anthropic's CEO to discuss AI technology, impacting their market prices.
Feb 6 2026
Trump’s racist post about Obamas deleted after backlash
Susie Wiles jumps to 39%5%
President Trump deleted a racist social media post about the Obamas after bipartisan backlash, with White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt defending the pro-family environment in the White House. This event influenced perceptions of Susie Wiles and the administration's image, affecting her market price.
Jan 30 2026
FBI search of Georgia election offices cites years-old fraud claims
Tulsi Gabbard rises to 40%1%
The FBI obtained a search warrant for Fulton County election offices based on long-discredited claims of fraud in the 2020 election, initiating a high-profile investigation. Tulsi Gabbard's presence at the search raised concerns about politicization and affected her market price.
Dec 30 2025
Howard Lutnick’s name appears in lawsuit over FBI agent firings
Howard Lutnick jumps to 28%7%
The lawsuit cited Director Kash Patel’s role in firing agents, indirectly implicating Lutnick, a senior advisor, and raising questions about his future in the administration, nudging his price upward.
Dec 22 2025
Kristi Noem announces DHS fraud investigation in Minneapolis
Kristi Noem surges to 65%15%
Noem’s public announcement of a DHS fraud probe linked her directly to a major enforcement action, increasing speculation that she might be reassigned or step down, lifting her departure odds.
Dec 20 2025
Tulsi Gabbard appears in FBI’s Georgia election‑office search
Tulsi Gabbard surges to 42%15%
Gabbard’s presence at the high‑profile search tied her directly to a controversial FBI operation, raising doubts about her staying in the administration and pushing her market price up.
Dec 15 2025
FBI appoints co‑deputy director after Bongino’s departure
Kash Patel surges to 78%20%
The appointment of Christopher Raia as co‑deputy director signaled a shift in FBI leadership, increasing expectations that Patel’s role could be diminished, further lifting Patel’s departure probability.
Dec 2 2025
Kristi Noem announces DHS fraud investigation in Minneapolis
Kristi Noem rises to 51%1%
As Secretary of Homeland Security, Kristi Noem disclosed a fraud probe targeting a large childcare fraud scheme in Minneapolis, signaling active involvement in enforcement and increasing speculation about her tenure in the administration.
Dec 1 2025
FBI Deputy Director Dan Bongino announces resignation plan
Kash Patel surges to 63%24%
Bongino said he will resign next month, prompting speculation about instability in the FBI under Director Kash Patel and raising expectations that Patel may be replaced, boosting odds of Patel’s departure.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.Recent cabinet turnover in President Trump’s second term has accelerated since March 2026, with Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem, Attorney General Pam Bondi, and Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer all departing within weeks amid reported frustrations over immigration enforcement, legal priorities including Epstein-related matters, and departmental spending. Additional exits among senior military, immigration, and national security officials have contributed to roughly 20 percent cabinet turnover and 34 percent turnover among top White House aides by early May 2026. These shifts reflect the administration’s emphasis on rapid policy execution in areas such as border security and executive actions, alongside periodic internal realignments. With the 2027 horizon covering the first two years of the term, ongoing legislative battles, potential further personnel reviews, and external pressures from foreign policy developments could influence additional departures.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Recent cabinet turnover in President Trump’s second term has accelerated since March 2026, with Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem, Attorney General Pam Bondi, and Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer all departing within weeks amid reported frustrations over immigration enforcement, legal priorities including Epstein-related matters, and departmental spending. Additional exits among senior military, immigration, and national security officials have contributed to roughly 20 percent cabinet turnover and 34 percent turnover among top White House aides by early May 2026. These shifts reflect the administration’s emphasis on rapid policy execution in areas such as border security and executive actions, alongside periodic internal realignments. With the 2027 horizon covering the first two years of the term, ongoing legislative battles, potential further personnel reviews, and external pressures from foreign policy developments could influence additional departures.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
May 5 2026
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth censures Senator Mark Kelly over military video
Pete Hegseth dips to 37%4%
Pete Hegseth censured Senator Mark Kelly for participating in a video urging troops to resist unlawful orders, escalating political tensions and affecting Hegseth’s market price.
Apr 2 2026
Pam Bondi announces departure as Attorney General amid legal challenges
Susie Wiles jumps to 39%5%
Attorney General Pam Bondi announced her departure following court rulings that challenged the legality of several Trump-appointed prosecutors, including herself. This event influenced the market prices for Bondi and related figures like Lee Zeldin.
Mar 10 2026
Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick linked to Jeffrey Epstein in released files
Howard Lutnick drops to 28%8%
Documents released by the Justice Department revealed Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick planned a visit to Jeffrey Epstein’s private island in 2012, contradicting prior statements. This association led to calls for his resignation and affected his market price.
Feb 27 2026
Trump administration takes punitive action against AI company Anthropic
Pete Hegseth surges to 41%17%
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and the Trump administration sought to declare Anthropic a supply chain risk over a contract dispute, leading to a federal judge blocking the action. White House chief of staff Susie Wiles met with Anthropic's CEO to discuss AI technology, impacting their market prices.
Feb 6 2026
Trump’s racist post about Obamas deleted after backlash
Susie Wiles jumps to 39%5%
President Trump deleted a racist social media post about the Obamas after bipartisan backlash, with White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt defending the pro-family environment in the White House. This event influenced perceptions of Susie Wiles and the administration's image, affecting her market price.
Jan 30 2026
FBI search of Georgia election offices cites years-old fraud claims
Tulsi Gabbard rises to 40%1%
The FBI obtained a search warrant for Fulton County election offices based on long-discredited claims of fraud in the 2020 election, initiating a high-profile investigation. Tulsi Gabbard's presence at the search raised concerns about politicization and affected her market price.
Dec 30 2025
Howard Lutnick’s name appears in lawsuit over FBI agent firings
Howard Lutnick jumps to 28%7%
The lawsuit cited Director Kash Patel’s role in firing agents, indirectly implicating Lutnick, a senior advisor, and raising questions about his future in the administration, nudging his price upward.
Dec 22 2025
Kristi Noem announces DHS fraud investigation in Minneapolis
Kristi Noem surges to 65%15%
Noem’s public announcement of a DHS fraud probe linked her directly to a major enforcement action, increasing speculation that she might be reassigned or step down, lifting her departure odds.
Dec 20 2025
Tulsi Gabbard appears in FBI’s Georgia election‑office search
Tulsi Gabbard surges to 42%15%
Gabbard’s presence at the high‑profile search tied her directly to a controversial FBI operation, raising doubts about her staying in the administration and pushing her market price up.
Dec 15 2025
FBI appoints co‑deputy director after Bongino’s departure
Kash Patel surges to 78%20%
The appointment of Christopher Raia as co‑deputy director signaled a shift in FBI leadership, increasing expectations that Patel’s role could be diminished, further lifting Patel’s departure probability.
Dec 2 2025
Kristi Noem announces DHS fraud investigation in Minneapolis
Kristi Noem rises to 51%1%
As Secretary of Homeland Security, Kristi Noem disclosed a fraud probe targeting a large childcare fraud scheme in Minneapolis, signaling active involvement in enforcement and increasing speculation about her tenure in the administration.
Dec 1 2025
FBI Deputy Director Dan Bongino announces resignation plan
Kash Patel surges to 63%24%
Bongino said he will resign next month, prompting speculation about instability in the FBI under Director Kash Patel and raising expectations that Patel may be replaced, boosting odds of Patel’s departure.
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Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes
« Qui quittera l'administration Trump avant 2027 ? » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 20 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « Pam Bondi » à 100%, suivi de « Dan Bongino » à 100%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 100¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 100% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.
À ce jour, « Qui quittera l'administration Trump avant 2027 ? » a généré $1.2 million en volume total de trading depuis le lancement du marché le Nov 5, 2025. Ce niveau d'activité reflète un fort engagement de la communauté Polymarket et garantit que les cotes actuelles sont alimentées par un large bassin de participants. Vous pouvez suivre les mouvements de prix en direct et trader sur n'importe quel résultat directement sur cette page.
Pour trader sur « Qui quittera l'administration Trump avant 2027 ? », parcourez les 20 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.
Le favori actuel pour « Qui quittera l'administration Trump avant 2027 ? » est « Pam Bondi » à 100%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 100% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « Dan Bongino » à 100%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.
Les règles de résolution de « Qui quittera l'administration Trump avant 2027 ? » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.
Oui. Vous n'avez pas besoin de trader pour rester informé. Cette page sert de suivi en direct pour « Qui quittera l'administration Trump avant 2027 ? ». Les probabilités des résultats sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que de nouvelles transactions arrivent. Vous pouvez ajouter cette page à vos favoris et consulter la section commentaires pour voir ce que disent les autres traders. Vous pouvez également utiliser les filtres de plage temporelle sur le graphique pour voir comment les cotes ont évolué au fil du temps.
Les cotes de Polymarket sont fixées par de vrais traders qui mettent de l'argent réel derrière leurs convictions, ce qui tend à produire des prédictions précises. Avec $1.2 million échangés sur « Qui quittera l'administration Trump avant 2027 ? », ces prix agrègent les connaissances collectives et la conviction de milliers de participants — surpassant souvent les sondages, les prévisions d’experts et les enquêtes traditionnelles. Les marchés de prédiction comme Polymarket ont un solide historique de précision, surtout à mesure que les événements approchent de leur date de résolution. Par exemple, Polymarket a un score de précision sur un mois de 94%. Pour les dernières statistiques sur la précision des prédictions de Polymarket, visitez la page de précision sur Polymarket.
Pour placer votre première transaction sur « Qui quittera l'administration Trump avant 2027 ? », inscrivez-vous pour un compte Polymarket gratuit et approvisionnez-le en utilisant des cryptomonnaies, une carte de crédit ou débit, ou un virement bancaire. Une fois votre compte approvisionné, revenez sur cette page, sélectionnez le résultat sur lequel vous souhaitez trader, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si vous êtes nouveau dans les marchés de prédiction, cliquez sur le lien « Comment ça marche » en haut de n'importe quelle page Polymarket pour un guide étape par étape.
Sur Polymarket, le prix de chaque résultat représente la probabilité implicite du marché. Un prix de 100¢ pour « Pam Bondi » sur le marché « Qui quittera l'administration Trump avant 2027 ? » signifie que les traders estiment collectivement qu'il y a environ une probabilité de 100% que « Pam Bondi » sera le résultat correct. Si vous achetez des parts « Oui » à 100¢ et que le résultat est correct, vous recevez $1,00 par part — un gain de 0¢ par part. S'il est incorrect, ces parts valent $0.
Le marché « Qui quittera l'administration Trump avant 2027 ? » est prévu pour être résolu autour du Dec 31, 2026. Cela signifie que le trading restera ouvert et les cotes continueront d'évoluer jusqu'à cette date. Le moment exact de la résolution dépend de la disponibilité du résultat officiel, comme décrit dans la section « Règles ».
Le marché « Qui quittera l'administration Trump avant 2027 ? » a une communauté active de 76 commentaires où les traders partagent leurs analyses, débattent des résultats et discutent des derniers développements. Faites défiler jusqu'à la section commentaires ci-dessous pour lire ce que pensent les autres participants. Vous pouvez également filtrer par « Principaux détenteurs » ou consulter l'onglet « Activité » pour un flux en temps réel des transactions.
Polymarket est le plus grand marché de prédiction au monde, où vous pouvez rester informé et profiter de vos connaissances sur les événements du monde réel. Les traders achètent et vendent des parts sur des résultats allant de la politique et des élections aux cryptomonnaies, finances, sports, technologie et culture, y compris des marchés comme « Qui quittera l'administration Trump avant 2027 ? ». Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel soutenues par une conviction financière, fournissant souvent des signaux plus rapides et plus précis que les sondages, les commentateurs ou les enquêtes traditionnelles.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes