Nicolás Maduro holds an overwhelming lead in trader consensus for Venezuela's leadership at the end of 2026 due to the continuity of Chavista institutional structures following his January 2026 capture by U.S. forces and the installation of interim President Delcy Rodríguez. Rodríguez, a longtime regime figure, has consolidated power with U.S. diplomatic and economic engagement, including reopened ties and resource deals, while opposition leaders such as María Corina Machado and Edmundo González remain sidelined in exile or excluded from key August 2026 talks. Recent factors include June earthquakes that strained governance and prompted limited dialogue, alongside persistent reports of unchanged repressive apparatus and no scheduled transition or elections that would alter the status quo before year-end. Lower probabilities for military figures or external actors reflect limited evidence of imminent shifts in control.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLeader vénézuélien fin 2026 ?
Leader vénézuélien fin 2026 ?
Nicolás Maduro 82.1%
Delcy Rodríguez 10%
María Corina Machado 2.6%
Pas de chef d'État <1%
$95,572,360 Vol.
$95,572,360 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Nicolás Maduro
82%
Delcy Rodríguez
10%
María Corina Machado
3%
Pas de chef d'État
1%
Jorge Rodríguez
<1%
Edmundo González
<1%
Diosdado Cabello Rondón
<1%
Vladimir Padrino López
<1%
Dinorah Figuera
<1%
Evan Pettus
<1%
Donald Trump
<1%
Marco Rubio
<1%
Pete Hegseth
<1%
Frank Donovan
<1%
Dan Caine
<1%
Richard Grenell
<1%
Nicolás Maduro 82.1%
Delcy Rodríguez 10%
María Corina Machado 2.6%
Pas de chef d'État <1%
$95,572,360 Vol.
$95,572,360 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Nicolás Maduro
$2,749,634 Vol.
82%
Delcy Rodríguez
$1,765,342 Vol.
10%
María Corina Machado
$1,443,258 Vol.
3%
Pas de chef d'État
$1,512,106 Vol.
1%
Jorge Rodríguez
$1,152,012 Vol.
<1%
Edmundo González
$1,213,253 Vol.
<1%
Diosdado Cabello Rondón
$2,086,363 Vol.
<1%
Vladimir Padrino López
$802,484 Vol.
<1%
Dinorah Figuera
$2,972,226 Vol.
<1%
Evan Pettus
$5,632,052 Vol.
<1%
Donald Trump
$1,120,278 Vol.
<1%
Marco Rubio
$1,397,180 Vol.
<1%
Pete Hegseth
$9,174,212 Vol.
<1%
Frank Donovan
$25,800,624 Vol.
<1%
Dan Caine
$4,113,079 Vol.
<1%
Richard Grenell
$32,638,258 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.
If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa).
In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.
If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
Nicolás Maduro holds an overwhelming lead in trader consensus for Venezuela's leadership at the end of 2026 due to the continuity of Chavista institutional structures following his January 2026 capture by U.S. forces and the installation of interim President Delcy Rodríguez. Rodríguez, a longtime regime figure, has consolidated power with U.S. diplomatic and economic engagement, including reopened ties and resource deals, while opposition leaders such as María Corina Machado and Edmundo González remain sidelined in exile or excluded from key August 2026 talks. Recent factors include June earthquakes that strained governance and prompted limited dialogue, alongside persistent reports of unchanged repressive apparatus and no scheduled transition or elections that would alter the status quo before year-end. Lower probabilities for military figures or external actors reflect limited evidence of imminent shifts in control.
This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.
If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa).
In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.
If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.
If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa).
In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.
If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
Marché ouvert : Jan 4, 2026, 1:09 PM ET
Volume
$95,572,360Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 4, 2026, 1:09 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.
If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa).
In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.
If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
Nicolás Maduro holds an overwhelming lead in trader consensus for Venezuela's leadership at the end of 2026 due to the continuity of Chavista institutional structures following his January 2026 capture by U.S. forces and the installation of interim President Delcy Rodríguez. Rodríguez, a longtime regime figure, has consolidated power with U.S. diplomatic and economic engagement, including reopened ties and resource deals, while opposition leaders such as María Corina Machado and Edmundo González remain sidelined in exile or excluded from key August 2026 talks. Recent factors include June earthquakes that strained governance and prompted limited dialogue, alongside persistent reports of unchanged repressive apparatus and no scheduled transition or elections that would alter the status quo before year-end. Lower probabilities for military figures or external actors reflect limited evidence of imminent shifts in control.
This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.
If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa).
In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.
If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.
If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa).
In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.
If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
Volume
$95,572,360Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 4, 2026, 1:09 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Nicolás Maduro holds an overwhelming lead in trader consensus for Venezuela's leadership at the end of 2026 due to the continuity of Chavista institutional structures following his January 2026 capture by U.S. forces and the installation of interim President Delcy Rodríguez. Rodríguez, a longtime regime figure, has consolidated power with U.S. diplomatic and economic engagement, including reopened ties and resource deals, while opposition leaders such as María Corina Machado and Edmundo González remain sidelined in exile or excluded from key August 2026 talks. Recent factors include June earthquakes that strained governance and prompted limited dialogue, alongside persistent reports of unchanged repressive apparatus and no scheduled transition or elections that would alter the status quo before year-end. Lower probabilities for military figures or external actors reflect limited evidence of imminent shifts in control.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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