**US extended deterrence commitments, reinforced through official policy statements and alliance dialogues, continue to deter independent nuclear programs among allies.** No US ally has launched or advanced a verifiable weaponization effort capable of yielding operational nuclear arms before the end of 2026. Debates in South Korea about potential hedging remain at the political level, with technical timelines for breakout estimated at one to three years only if a formal decision were made—an action that has not occurred. Japan maintains its non-nuclear principles amid capability discussions, while European NATO members rely on existing US nuclear-sharing arrangements rather than indigenous development. The expiration of New START and US modernization focus have not altered allied nonproliferation stances or triggered new programs. Structural barriers, including NPT commitments and alliance integration, further support trader consensus around the 94% probability for “No.”
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
6% chance
$163,458 Vol.
$163,458 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
6% chance
$163,458 Vol.
$163,458 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
**US extended deterrence commitments, reinforced through official policy statements and alliance dialogues, continue to deter independent nuclear programs among allies.** No US ally has launched or advanced a verifiable weaponization effort capable of yielding operational nuclear arms before the end of 2026. Debates in South Korea about potential hedging remain at the political level, with technical timelines for breakout estimated at one to three years only if a formal decision were made—an action that has not occurred. Japan maintains its non-nuclear principles amid capability discussions, while European NATO members rely on existing US nuclear-sharing arrangements rather than indigenous development. The expiration of New START and US modernization focus have not altered allied nonproliferation stances or triggered new programs. Structural barriers, including NPT commitments and alliance integration, further support trader consensus around the 94% probability for “No.”
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Marché ouvert : Nov 13, 2025, 5:54 PM ET
Volume
$163,458Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 13, 2025, 5:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
**US extended deterrence commitments, reinforced through official policy statements and alliance dialogues, continue to deter independent nuclear programs among allies.** No US ally has launched or advanced a verifiable weaponization effort capable of yielding operational nuclear arms before the end of 2026. Debates in South Korea about potential hedging remain at the political level, with technical timelines for breakout estimated at one to three years only if a formal decision were made—an action that has not occurred. Japan maintains its non-nuclear principles amid capability discussions, while European NATO members rely on existing US nuclear-sharing arrangements rather than indigenous development. The expiration of New START and US modernization focus have not altered allied nonproliferation stances or triggered new programs. Structural barriers, including NPT commitments and alliance integration, further support trader consensus around the 94% probability for “No.”
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Volume
$163,458Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 13, 2025, 5:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**US extended deterrence commitments, reinforced through official policy statements and alliance dialogues, continue to deter independent nuclear programs among allies.** No US ally has launched or advanced a verifiable weaponization effort capable of yielding operational nuclear arms before the end of 2026. Debates in South Korea about potential hedging remain at the political level, with technical timelines for breakout estimated at one to three years only if a formal decision were made—an action that has not occurred. Japan maintains its non-nuclear principles amid capability discussions, while European NATO members rely on existing US nuclear-sharing arrangements rather than indigenous development. The expiration of New START and US modernization focus have not altered allied nonproliferation stances or triggered new programs. Structural barriers, including NPT commitments and alliance integration, further support trader consensus around the 94% probability for “No.”
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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