US and Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026 damaged or destroyed major Iranian enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and related sites, halting operations and leaving no verified active enrichment underway. US intelligence and independent assessments place the timeline to a first weapon at roughly one year or more from any decision to proceed, given destroyed infrastructure, uncertain surviving 60% enriched uranium stocks, and lost IAEA continuity of knowledge since mid-2025. With only weeks remaining before 2027, traders view a completed nuclear device as highly improbable under current conditions. Diplomatic talks and IAEA reporting requirements continue without signs of an accelerated breakout, though any undetected recovery of material or rapid reconstitution of centrifuges could still alter the narrow remaining window.