Kevin Warsh, confirmed as Federal Reserve Chair in May 2026, delivered his first rate increase on September 16, lifting the federal funds target to 3.75-4.00 percent amid August CPI at 3.4 percent and renewed energy-driven price pressures. The unanimous FOMC decision and updated projections signaling further tightening this year have heightened tensions with the Trump administration, which has publicly advocated for lower borrowing costs. Polymarket traders price a low probability of removal attempts through year-end, reflecting Warsh’s four-year term and institutional protections, though upcoming inflation prints, labor data, and any administration communications on Fed leadership remain key variables that could shift implied odds on early departure.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour$40,549 Vol.
31 décembre 2026
3%
30 juin 2027
10%
$40,549 Vol.
31 décembre 2026
3%
30 juin 2027
10%
The departure will be considered to be announced when Kevin Warsh, the Federal Reserve of the United States, or their authorized representatives publicly and definitively announce that Kevin Warsh has ceased or will cease to hold the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve of the United States. Such an announcement will qualify regardless of when the specified person formally leaves the position. Announcements of the specified person's resignation, removal, or departure through other means all qualify.
Only announcements which are framed as announcing a departure intended to be effective within 18 months of the date of the announcement will qualify (e.g., neither "I will leave office in 2 years," nor "I will not be in office forever," would qualify).
Announcements of temporary leaves of absence, dated suspensions, indefinite suspensions, administrative leaves, or other temporary changes to the specified person's duties in the specified position do not qualify.
The following do not qualify as public and definitive announcements: statements that the specified person is considering or open to departing; conditional statements that the specified person will depart only if certain conditions are met; the announcement of an offer of resignation that requires acceptance and remains pending or has been refused; media reports that the specified person plans to depart; statements made in sarcasm or jest; and statements by persons other than the specified person, the relevant authority governing the specified position, or their respective authorized representatives.
If the specified person holds the specified position on a predefined term with a scheduled end date, only announcements that they will depart the position prior to the scheduled end of their term qualify.
If the specified person formally ceases to hold the specified position before the end of their scheduled term without a qualifying announcement, the market will resolve to "Yes" if a consensus of credible reporting confirms the departure by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Kevin Warsh and the Federal Reserve of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Jul 24, 2026, 11:47 AM ET
Résolveur
0x65070BE91...The departure will be considered to be announced when Kevin Warsh, the Federal Reserve of the United States, or their authorized representatives publicly and definitively announce that Kevin Warsh has ceased or will cease to hold the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve of the United States. Such an announcement will qualify regardless of when the specified person formally leaves the position. Announcements of the specified person's resignation, removal, or departure through other means all qualify.
Only announcements which are framed as announcing a departure intended to be effective within 18 months of the date of the announcement will qualify (e.g., neither "I will leave office in 2 years," nor "I will not be in office forever," would qualify).
Announcements of temporary leaves of absence, dated suspensions, indefinite suspensions, administrative leaves, or other temporary changes to the specified person's duties in the specified position do not qualify.
The following do not qualify as public and definitive announcements: statements that the specified person is considering or open to departing; conditional statements that the specified person will depart only if certain conditions are met; the announcement of an offer of resignation that requires acceptance and remains pending or has been refused; media reports that the specified person plans to depart; statements made in sarcasm or jest; and statements by persons other than the specified person, the relevant authority governing the specified position, or their respective authorized representatives.
If the specified person holds the specified position on a predefined term with a scheduled end date, only announcements that they will depart the position prior to the scheduled end of their term qualify.
If the specified person formally ceases to hold the specified position before the end of their scheduled term without a qualifying announcement, the market will resolve to "Yes" if a consensus of credible reporting confirms the departure by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Kevin Warsh and the Federal Reserve of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Résolveur
0x65070BE91...Kevin Warsh, confirmed as Federal Reserve Chair in May 2026, delivered his first rate increase on September 16, lifting the federal funds target to 3.75-4.00 percent amid August CPI at 3.4 percent and renewed energy-driven price pressures. The unanimous FOMC decision and updated projections signaling further tightening this year have heightened tensions with the Trump administration, which has publicly advocated for lower borrowing costs. Polymarket traders price a low probability of removal attempts through year-end, reflecting Warsh’s four-year term and institutional protections, though upcoming inflation prints, labor data, and any administration communications on Fed leadership remain key variables that could shift implied odds on early departure.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour


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