Traders assign closely matched probabilities across contraction and expansion bins for Japan’s Q2 2026 QoQ annualized GDP growth, reflecting uncertainty after Q1’s 0.5% QoQ expansion. The Bank of Japan’s April outlook highlights deceleration in fiscal 2026 from elevated crude-oil prices tied to Middle East developments, which are pressuring terms of trade, corporate profits, and real household income. At the same time, tight labor markets and ongoing wage gains support domestic demand, while OECD and private forecasts peg full-year growth near 0.6–0.8%. This balance of resilient consumption and capex against commodity-driven headwinds creates the contested pricing, with resolution hinging on the August preliminary release and incoming monthly indicators on exports, household spending, and inflation.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour<-2.4% 90%
0.0%–0.8% 75%
3.2%–4.0% 41%
-0.8%–0.0% 38.9%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
17 août 2026
<-2.4%
90%
-2.4%– -1.6%
-
-1.6%– -0.8%
34%
-0.8%–0.0%
39%
0.0%–0.8%
75%
0.8%–1.6%
26%
1.6%–2.4%
26%
2.4%–3.2%
23%
3.2%–4.0%
41%
4.0%+
-
<-2.4% 90%
0.0%–0.8% 75%
3.2%–4.0% 41%
-0.8%–0.0% 38.9%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
17 août 2026
<-2.4%
$21 Vol.
90%
-2.4%– -1.6%
$11 Vol.
-
-1.6%– -0.8%
$16 Vol.
34%
-0.8%–0.0%
$16 Vol.
39%
0.0%–0.8%
$205 Vol.
75%
0.8%–1.6%
$21 Vol.
26%
1.6%–2.4%
$21 Vol.
26%
2.4%–3.2%
$10 Vol.
23%
3.2%–4.0%
$60 Vol.
41%
4.0%+
$5 Vol.
-
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the second quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on August 17, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.htmlTraders assign closely matched probabilities across contraction and expansion bins for Japan’s Q2 2026 QoQ annualized GDP growth, reflecting uncertainty after Q1’s 0.5% QoQ expansion. The Bank of Japan’s April outlook highlights deceleration in fiscal 2026 from elevated crude-oil prices tied to Middle East developments, which are pressuring terms of trade, corporate profits, and real household income. At the same time, tight labor markets and ongoing wage gains support domestic demand, while OECD and private forecasts peg full-year growth near 0.6–0.8%. This balance of resilient consumption and capex against commodity-driven headwinds creates the contested pricing, with resolution hinging on the August preliminary release and incoming monthly indicators on exports, household spending, and inflation.
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the second quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on August 17, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
Marché ouvert : May 26, 2026, 2:03 PM ET
Volume
$386Date de fin
17 août 2026Marché ouvert
May 26, 2026, 2:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the second quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on August 17, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.htmlTraders assign closely matched probabilities across contraction and expansion bins for Japan’s Q2 2026 QoQ annualized GDP growth, reflecting uncertainty after Q1’s 0.5% QoQ expansion. The Bank of Japan’s April outlook highlights deceleration in fiscal 2026 from elevated crude-oil prices tied to Middle East developments, which are pressuring terms of trade, corporate profits, and real household income. At the same time, tight labor markets and ongoing wage gains support domestic demand, while OECD and private forecasts peg full-year growth near 0.6–0.8%. This balance of resilient consumption and capex against commodity-driven headwinds creates the contested pricing, with resolution hinging on the August preliminary release and incoming monthly indicators on exports, household spending, and inflation.
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the second quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on August 17, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
Volume
$386Date de fin
17 août 2026Marché ouvert
May 26, 2026, 2:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders assign closely matched probabilities across contraction and expansion bins for Japan’s Q2 2026 QoQ annualized GDP growth, reflecting uncertainty after Q1’s 0.5% QoQ expansion. The Bank of Japan’s April outlook highlights deceleration in fiscal 2026 from elevated crude-oil prices tied to Middle East developments, which are pressuring terms of trade, corporate profits, and real household income. At the same time, tight labor markets and ongoing wage gains support domestic demand, while OECD and private forecasts peg full-year growth near 0.6–0.8%. This balance of resilient consumption and capex against commodity-driven headwinds creates the contested pricing, with resolution hinging on the August preliminary release and incoming monthly indicators on exports, household spending, and inflation.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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