Persistent energy price pressures from the Iran-related geopolitical shock, combined with subdued domestic demand and external trade headwinds, anchor trader consensus around the 0–1.0% range for Eurozone 2026 GDP growth. Official forecasts from the European Commission (0.9%), OECD (0.8%), and Vanguard (0.8%) cluster in this band, reflecting Q1 contraction of 0.2% quarter-over-quarter and only modest 0.4% expansion in Q2 amid resilient but below-trend activity. Elevated inflation near 3% has prompted tighter financial conditions and cautious ECB policy, limiting upside risks. Recent signs of stabilization in PMI readings and a provisional Iran-US ceasefire offer limited support, yet the market-implied 71.7% probability on 0–1.0% growth underscores the dominant base-case outlook for sub-1% expansion.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour0-1,0 % 71.4%
1,0-2,0 % 26%
<0 % 2.6%
4,0-5,0 % 2.1%
$29,815 Vol.
$29,815 Vol.
31 janv. 2027
<0 %
3%
0-1,0 %
71%
1,0-2,0 %
26%
2,0-3,0 %
1%
3,0-4,0 %
<1%
4,0-5,0 %
2%
5,0-6,0 %
<1%
6,0-7,0 %
<1%
7,0 %+
<1%
0-1,0 % 71.4%
1,0-2,0 % 26%
<0 % 2.6%
4,0-5,0 % 2.1%
$29,815 Vol.
$29,815 Vol.
31 janv. 2027
<0 %
$1,623 Vol.
3%
0-1,0 %
$11,443 Vol.
71%
1,0-2,0 %
$7,076 Vol.
26%
2,0-3,0 %
$1,131 Vol.
1%
3,0-4,0 %
$1,047 Vol.
<1%
4,0-5,0 %
$2,154 Vol.
2%
5,0-6,0 %
$1,136 Vol.
<1%
6,0-7,0 %
$2,599 Vol.
<1%
7,0 %+
$1,606 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Persistent energy price pressures from the Iran-related geopolitical shock, combined with subdued domestic demand and external trade headwinds, anchor trader consensus around the 0–1.0% range for Eurozone 2026 GDP growth. Official forecasts from the European Commission (0.9%), OECD (0.8%), and Vanguard (0.8%) cluster in this band, reflecting Q1 contraction of 0.2% quarter-over-quarter and only modest 0.4% expansion in Q2 amid resilient but below-trend activity. Elevated inflation near 3% has prompted tighter financial conditions and cautious ECB policy, limiting upside risks. Recent signs of stabilization in PMI readings and a provisional Iran-US ceasefire offer limited support, yet the market-implied 71.7% probability on 0–1.0% growth underscores the dominant base-case outlook for sub-1% expansion.
This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Jan 21, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
Volume
$29,815Date de fin
31 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Jan 21, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Persistent energy price pressures from the Iran-related geopolitical shock, combined with subdued domestic demand and external trade headwinds, anchor trader consensus around the 0–1.0% range for Eurozone 2026 GDP growth. Official forecasts from the European Commission (0.9%), OECD (0.8%), and Vanguard (0.8%) cluster in this band, reflecting Q1 contraction of 0.2% quarter-over-quarter and only modest 0.4% expansion in Q2 amid resilient but below-trend activity. Elevated inflation near 3% has prompted tighter financial conditions and cautious ECB policy, limiting upside risks. Recent signs of stabilization in PMI readings and a provisional Iran-US ceasefire offer limited support, yet the market-implied 71.7% probability on 0–1.0% growth underscores the dominant base-case outlook for sub-1% expansion.
This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$29,815Date de fin
31 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Jan 21, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Persistent energy price pressures from the Iran-related geopolitical shock, combined with subdued domestic demand and external trade headwinds, anchor trader consensus around the 0–1.0% range for Eurozone 2026 GDP growth. Official forecasts from the European Commission (0.9%), OECD (0.8%), and Vanguard (0.8%) cluster in this band, reflecting Q1 contraction of 0.2% quarter-over-quarter and only modest 0.4% expansion in Q2 amid resilient but below-trend activity. Elevated inflation near 3% has prompted tighter financial conditions and cautious ECB policy, limiting upside risks. Recent signs of stabilization in PMI readings and a provisional Iran-US ceasefire offer limited support, yet the market-implied 71.7% probability on 0–1.0% growth underscores the dominant base-case outlook for sub-1% expansion.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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