Recent Q2 2026 GDP growth of 1.5% annualized, below consensus and the prior quarter's 2.1%, combined with June CPI easing to 3.5% year-over-year, anchors trader sentiment around moderate expansion for Q3. The Federal Reserve's hold at the 3.50–3.75% federal funds target range amid resilient consumer spending, softening labor market data near 4.3% unemployment, and geopolitical energy price pressures supports a narrow distribution centered on the 1.0–2.0% bands. Closely matched probabilities reflect uncertainty over whether inventory dynamics, net exports, or potential late-quarter rate adjustments will tilt outcomes toward the lower or upper end of that range, consistent with growth near potential output.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour1.5–2.0% 23%
1.0–1.5% 22%
2.0–2.5% 19%
0.5–1.0% 16%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
29 oct. 2026
<0.5%
12%
0.5–1.0%
16%
1.0–1.5%
22%
1.5–2.0%
23%
2.0–2.5%
19%
2.5–3.0%
12%
≥3.0%
9%
1.5–2.0% 23%
1.0–1.5% 22%
2.0–2.5% 19%
0.5–1.0% 16%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
29 oct. 2026
<0.5%
$0 Vol.
12%
0.5–1.0%
$0 Vol.
16%
1.0–1.5%
$0 Vol.
22%
1.5–2.0%
$0 Vol.
23%
2.0–2.5%
$0 Vol.
19%
2.5–3.0%
$0 Vol.
12%
≥3.0%
$0 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.Recent Q2 2026 GDP growth of 1.5% annualized, below consensus and the prior quarter's 2.1%, combined with June CPI easing to 3.5% year-over-year, anchors trader sentiment around moderate expansion for Q3. The Federal Reserve's hold at the 3.50–3.75% federal funds target range amid resilient consumer spending, softening labor market data near 4.3% unemployment, and geopolitical energy price pressures supports a narrow distribution centered on the 1.0–2.0% bands. Closely matched probabilities reflect uncertainty over whether inventory dynamics, net exports, or potential late-quarter rate adjustments will tilt outcomes toward the lower or upper end of that range, consistent with growth near potential output.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
Marché ouvert : Jul 31, 2026, 5:38 PM ET
Volume
$0Date de fin
29 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 31, 2026, 5:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.Recent Q2 2026 GDP growth of 1.5% annualized, below consensus and the prior quarter's 2.1%, combined with June CPI easing to 3.5% year-over-year, anchors trader sentiment around moderate expansion for Q3. The Federal Reserve's hold at the 3.50–3.75% federal funds target range amid resilient consumer spending, softening labor market data near 4.3% unemployment, and geopolitical energy price pressures supports a narrow distribution centered on the 1.0–2.0% bands. Closely matched probabilities reflect uncertainty over whether inventory dynamics, net exports, or potential late-quarter rate adjustments will tilt outcomes toward the lower or upper end of that range, consistent with growth near potential output.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
Volume
$0Date de fin
29 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 31, 2026, 5:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Q2 2026 GDP growth of 1.5% annualized, below consensus and the prior quarter's 2.1%, combined with June CPI easing to 3.5% year-over-year, anchors trader sentiment around moderate expansion for Q3. The Federal Reserve's hold at the 3.50–3.75% federal funds target range amid resilient consumer spending, softening labor market data near 4.3% unemployment, and geopolitical energy price pressures supports a narrow distribution centered on the 1.0–2.0% bands. Closely matched probabilities reflect uncertainty over whether inventory dynamics, net exports, or potential late-quarter rate adjustments will tilt outcomes toward the lower or upper end of that range, consistent with growth near potential output.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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