The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow nowcast for Q3 2026 real GDP growth jumped to 5.1% annualized on September 16, up from 4.4% days earlier, on stronger personal consumption expenditures and government spending readings. This latest nowcast reinforces market-implied odds favoring ≥3.0% growth at 50.5%, well ahead of the 2.0–2.5% bucket at 20.5%. The FOMC’s September 16 projections, released after its policy meeting and 25-basis-point rate increase, showed a modest upward revision to 2.3% median GDP growth for full-year 2026 on a Q4/Q4 basis. Traders are pricing in resilient consumer demand and AI-related investment as key supports, though the advance BEA estimate due later this month remains the key near-term catalyst that could shift probabilities.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour≥3.0% 52%
2.0–2.5% 21%
2.5–3.0% 13%
1.5–2.0% 9%
$27,984 Vol.
$27,984 Vol.
29 oct. 2026
<0.5%
2%
0.5–1.0%
4%
1.0–1.5%
5%
1.5–2.0%
9%
2.0–2.5%
21%
2.5–3.0%
13%
≥3.0%
52%
≥3.0% 52%
2.0–2.5% 21%
2.5–3.0% 13%
1.5–2.0% 9%
$27,984 Vol.
$27,984 Vol.
29 oct. 2026
<0.5%
$906 Vol.
2%
0.5–1.0%
$559 Vol.
4%
1.0–1.5%
$660 Vol.
5%
1.5–2.0%
$718 Vol.
9%
2.0–2.5%
$1,890 Vol.
21%
2.5–3.0%
$3,411 Vol.
13%
≥3.0%
$19,840 Vol.
52%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow nowcast for Q3 2026 real GDP growth jumped to 5.1% annualized on September 16, up from 4.4% days earlier, on stronger personal consumption expenditures and government spending readings. This latest nowcast reinforces market-implied odds favoring ≥3.0% growth at 50.5%, well ahead of the 2.0–2.5% bucket at 20.5%. The FOMC’s September 16 projections, released after its policy meeting and 25-basis-point rate increase, showed a modest upward revision to 2.3% median GDP growth for full-year 2026 on a Q4/Q4 basis. Traders are pricing in resilient consumer demand and AI-related investment as key supports, though the advance BEA estimate due later this month remains the key near-term catalyst that could shift probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
Marché ouvert : Jul 31, 2026, 5:38 PM ET
Volume
$27,984Date de fin
29 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 31, 2026, 5:38 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow nowcast for Q3 2026 real GDP growth jumped to 5.1% annualized on September 16, up from 4.4% days earlier, on stronger personal consumption expenditures and government spending readings. This latest nowcast reinforces market-implied odds favoring ≥3.0% growth at 50.5%, well ahead of the 2.0–2.5% bucket at 20.5%. The FOMC’s September 16 projections, released after its policy meeting and 25-basis-point rate increase, showed a modest upward revision to 2.3% median GDP growth for full-year 2026 on a Q4/Q4 basis. Traders are pricing in resilient consumer demand and AI-related investment as key supports, though the advance BEA estimate due later this month remains the key near-term catalyst that could shift probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
Volume
$27,984Date de fin
29 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 31, 2026, 5:38 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow nowcast for Q3 2026 real GDP growth jumped to 5.1% annualized on September 16, up from 4.4% days earlier, on stronger personal consumption expenditures and government spending readings. This latest nowcast reinforces market-implied odds favoring ≥3.0% growth at 50.5%, well ahead of the 2.0–2.5% bucket at 20.5%. The FOMC’s September 16 projections, released after its policy meeting and 25-basis-point rate increase, showed a modest upward revision to 2.3% median GDP growth for full-year 2026 on a Q4/Q4 basis. Traders are pricing in resilient consumer demand and AI-related investment as key supports, though the advance BEA estimate due later this month remains the key near-term catalyst that could shift probabilities.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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