Recent economist surveys, including the Japan Center for Economic Research's September poll, project Q3 2026 real GDP growth at a modest 0.25% annualized, reflecting upward revisions from prior estimates amid resilient exports—particularly semiconductors—and government spending, offset by softening private consumption and elevated energy costs tied to Middle East tensions. Q2's final 1.4% annualized print confirmed a third consecutive expansion but highlighted moderating domestic demand. The Bank of Japan's September 18 rate hike to 1.25%, alongside core CPI easing to 1.7% year-over-year in August, underscores tightening monetary policy that could further weigh on near-term activity. These dynamics explain the closely matched Polymarket odds between the 0.0–0.8% and 0.8–1.6% ranges, as traders weigh export strength against consumption and price pressures ahead of the November preliminary release.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour0.0%–0.8% 37.7%
0.8%–1.6% 32%
-0.8%–0.0% 24%
2.4%–3.2% 6.3%
$27,269 Vol.
$27,269 Vol.
15 nov. 2026
<-2.4%
5%
-2.4%– -1.6%
1%
-1.6%– -0.8%
4%
-0.8%–0.0%
24%
0.0%–0.8%
38%
0.8%–1.6%
32%
1.6%–2.4%
6%
2.4%–3.2%
6%
3.2%–4.0%
3%
4.0%+
1%
0.0%–0.8% 37.7%
0.8%–1.6% 32%
-0.8%–0.0% 24%
2.4%–3.2% 6.3%
$27,269 Vol.
$27,269 Vol.
15 nov. 2026
<-2.4%
$604 Vol.
5%
-2.4%– -1.6%
$3,758 Vol.
1%
-1.6%– -0.8%
$282 Vol.
4%
-0.8%–0.0%
$2,635 Vol.
24%
0.0%–0.8%
$11,248 Vol.
38%
0.8%–1.6%
$2,834 Vol.
32%
1.6%–2.4%
$679 Vol.
6%
2.4%–3.2%
$3,422 Vol.
6%
3.2%–4.0%
$1,244 Vol.
3%
4.0%+
$561 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the third quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on November 16, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.htmlRecent economist surveys, including the Japan Center for Economic Research's September poll, project Q3 2026 real GDP growth at a modest 0.25% annualized, reflecting upward revisions from prior estimates amid resilient exports—particularly semiconductors—and government spending, offset by softening private consumption and elevated energy costs tied to Middle East tensions. Q2's final 1.4% annualized print confirmed a third consecutive expansion but highlighted moderating domestic demand. The Bank of Japan's September 18 rate hike to 1.25%, alongside core CPI easing to 1.7% year-over-year in August, underscores tightening monetary policy that could further weigh on near-term activity. These dynamics explain the closely matched Polymarket odds between the 0.0–0.8% and 0.8–1.6% ranges, as traders weigh export strength against consumption and price pressures ahead of the November preliminary release.
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the third quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on November 16, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
Marché ouvert : Aug 17, 2026, 3:20 PM ET
Volume
$27,269Date de fin
16 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 17, 2026, 3:20 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the third quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on November 16, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.htmlRecent economist surveys, including the Japan Center for Economic Research's September poll, project Q3 2026 real GDP growth at a modest 0.25% annualized, reflecting upward revisions from prior estimates amid resilient exports—particularly semiconductors—and government spending, offset by softening private consumption and elevated energy costs tied to Middle East tensions. Q2's final 1.4% annualized print confirmed a third consecutive expansion but highlighted moderating domestic demand. The Bank of Japan's September 18 rate hike to 1.25%, alongside core CPI easing to 1.7% year-over-year in August, underscores tightening monetary policy that could further weigh on near-term activity. These dynamics explain the closely matched Polymarket odds between the 0.0–0.8% and 0.8–1.6% ranges, as traders weigh export strength against consumption and price pressures ahead of the November preliminary release.
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the third quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on November 16, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
Volume
$27,269Date de fin
16 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 17, 2026, 3:20 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Recent economist surveys, including the Japan Center for Economic Research's September poll, project Q3 2026 real GDP growth at a modest 0.25% annualized, reflecting upward revisions from prior estimates amid resilient exports—particularly semiconductors—and government spending, offset by softening private consumption and elevated energy costs tied to Middle East tensions. Q2's final 1.4% annualized print confirmed a third consecutive expansion but highlighted moderating domestic demand. The Bank of Japan's September 18 rate hike to 1.25%, alongside core CPI easing to 1.7% year-over-year in August, underscores tightening monetary policy that could further weigh on near-term activity. These dynamics explain the closely matched Polymarket odds between the 0.0–0.8% and 0.8–1.6% ranges, as traders weigh export strength against consumption and price pressures ahead of the November preliminary release.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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