Recent polling from mid-September shows Lula's first-round support clustered between 36% and 42% across major institutes, reflecting consolidated PT backing offset by roughly 50% government disapproval and rejection ratings near that level. Flávio Bolsonaro has stabilized right-wing preferences in the low-to-mid 30s, while candidates like Augusto Cury draw 6-10% and fragment the remainder, preventing any frontrunner from approaching a majority. Runoff simulations remain statistically tied or within margins of error, underscoring how turnout among undecided voters, economic sentiment, and late campaign shifts could still compress or expand Lula's share before the October 4 ballot.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour44 %+ 42%
41-44 % 40%
38-41 % 14%
35-38 % 4.8%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
4 oct. 2026
<35 %
5%
35-38 %
5%
38-41 %
14%
41-44 %
40%
44 %+
42%
44 %+ 42%
41-44 % 40%
38-41 % 14%
35-38 % 4.8%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
4 oct. 2026
<35 %
$353 Vol.
5%
35-38 %
$417 Vol.
5%
38-41 %
$727 Vol.
14%
41-44 %
$1,016 Vol.
40%
44 %+
$1,231 Vol.
42%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling from mid-September shows Lula's first-round support clustered between 36% and 42% across major institutes, reflecting consolidated PT backing offset by roughly 50% government disapproval and rejection ratings near that level. Flávio Bolsonaro has stabilized right-wing preferences in the low-to-mid 30s, while candidates like Augusto Cury draw 6-10% and fragment the remainder, preventing any frontrunner from approaching a majority. Runoff simulations remain statistically tied or within margins of error, underscoring how turnout among undecided voters, economic sentiment, and late campaign shifts could still compress or expand Lula's share before the October 4 ballot.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Marché ouvert : Sep 15, 2026, 10:25 PM ET
Volume
$3,745Date de fin
5 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 15, 2026, 10:25 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling from mid-September shows Lula's first-round support clustered between 36% and 42% across major institutes, reflecting consolidated PT backing offset by roughly 50% government disapproval and rejection ratings near that level. Flávio Bolsonaro has stabilized right-wing preferences in the low-to-mid 30s, while candidates like Augusto Cury draw 6-10% and fragment the remainder, preventing any frontrunner from approaching a majority. Runoff simulations remain statistically tied or within margins of error, underscoring how turnout among undecided voters, economic sentiment, and late campaign shifts could still compress or expand Lula's share before the October 4 ballot.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$3,745Date de fin
5 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 15, 2026, 10:25 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling from mid-September shows Lula's first-round support clustered between 36% and 42% across major institutes, reflecting consolidated PT backing offset by roughly 50% government disapproval and rejection ratings near that level. Flávio Bolsonaro has stabilized right-wing preferences in the low-to-mid 30s, while candidates like Augusto Cury draw 6-10% and fragment the remainder, preventing any frontrunner from approaching a majority. Runoff simulations remain statistically tied or within margins of error, underscoring how turnout among undecided voters, economic sentiment, and late campaign shifts could still compress or expand Lula's share before the October 4 ballot.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourConnexes
Flávio Bolsonaro obtiendra-t-il 39 % ou plus des suffrages valides au premier tour de l'élection présidentielle brésilienne de 2026 ?
71%
Oui
Renan Santos obtiendra-t-il entre 2 % et 4 % des votes valides au premier tour de l'élection présidentielle brésilienne de 2026 ?
40%
Oui
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva va-t-il gagner le premier tour de l'élection présidentielle brésilienne de 2026 avec moins de 5 % d'avance ?
49%
Oui
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