Lula maintains a strong position as the frontrunner to win Brazil’s October 4, 2026 first round, supported by consistent polling leads of 37–40% amid a fragmented field. Recent Quaest surveys show his margin over Flávio Bolsonaro narrowing to 37–29%, with writer Augusto Cury rising to third at 10% on the strength of television exposure and social media. The official campaign period, including free broadcast time and debates, has highlighted voter concerns over the economy and government approval ratings near parity. Jair Bolsonaro’s ineligibility continues to shape the right-wing contest around his son, while lower-polling names such as Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos remain distant. Trader consensus reflects Lula’s incumbency advantage and first-round polling edge, even as second-round simulations indicate a technical tie.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLula 86%
Flavio Bolsonaro 15%
Écrivain Augusto Cury <1%
Ronaldo Caiado <1%
$14,621 Vol.
$14,621 Vol.
Lula
86%
Flavio Bolsonaro
15%
Écrivain Augusto Cury
1%
Ronaldo Caiado
1%
Renan Santos
1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
<1%
Clariana Barao
<1%
Hertz Dias
<1%
Samara
<1%
Vétérinaire Wilson Grassi
<1%
Edmilson Costa
<1%
Zema
<1%
Pablo Marçal
<1%
Lula 86%
Flavio Bolsonaro 15%
Écrivain Augusto Cury <1%
Ronaldo Caiado <1%
$14,621 Vol.
$14,621 Vol.
Lula
86%
Flavio Bolsonaro
15%
Écrivain Augusto Cury
1%
Ronaldo Caiado
1%
Renan Santos
1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
<1%
Clariana Barao
<1%
Hertz Dias
<1%
Samara
<1%
Vétérinaire Wilson Grassi
<1%
Edmilson Costa
<1%
Zema
<1%
Pablo Marçal
<1%
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Marché ouvert : Aug 31, 2026, 1:47 PM ET
Source de résolution
https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/Résolveur
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Source de résolution
https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/Résolveur
0x69c47De9D...Lula maintains a strong position as the frontrunner to win Brazil’s October 4, 2026 first round, supported by consistent polling leads of 37–40% amid a fragmented field. Recent Quaest surveys show his margin over Flávio Bolsonaro narrowing to 37–29%, with writer Augusto Cury rising to third at 10% on the strength of television exposure and social media. The official campaign period, including free broadcast time and debates, has highlighted voter concerns over the economy and government approval ratings near parity. Jair Bolsonaro’s ineligibility continues to shape the right-wing contest around his son, while lower-polling names such as Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos remain distant. Trader consensus reflects Lula’s incumbency advantage and first-round polling edge, even as second-round simulations indicate a technical tie.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourConnexes
Flávio Bolsonaro terminera-t-il à la deuxième place au premier tour de l'élection présidentielle brésilienne de 2026 ?
Augusto Cury terminera-t-il à la troisième place au premier tour de l'élection présidentielle brésilienne de 2026 ?
Flavio Bolsonaro remportera-t-il le plus de voix lors de la prochaine élection présidentielle brésilienne dans le District fédéral ?
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