Lula's overwhelming lead in the Pernambuco first-round presidential market stems from sustained regional backing in the Northeast, where recent Datafolha and Real Time Big Data surveys show him at 55-56% against far lower shares for rivals like Flávio Bolsonaro. As a native son with established voter coalitions and government approval ratings near 60% in the state, his position reflects entrenched patterns ahead of the October 2026 vote. Other candidates register minimal traction in local polling. While national economic shifts, turnout changes, or late developments could narrow gaps, the current trader consensus highlights substantial structural advantages for the incumbent in this key electoral stronghold.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLula 97.0%
Flavio Bolsonaro 1.4%
Zema <1%
Clariana Barao <1%
$10,145 Vol.
$10,145 Vol.
4 oct. 2026
Lula
97%
Flavio Bolsonaro
1%
Zema
1%
Clariana Barao
<1%
Renan Santos
<1%
Edmilson Costa
<1%
Écrivain Augusto Cury
<1%
Hertz Dias
<1%
Pablo Marçal
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
<1%
Samara
<1%
Vétérinaire Wilson Grassi
<1%
Lula 97.0%
Flavio Bolsonaro 1.4%
Zema <1%
Clariana Barao <1%
$10,145 Vol.
$10,145 Vol.
4 oct. 2026
Lula
$6,097 Vol.
97%
Flavio Bolsonaro
$397 Vol.
1%
Zema
$339 Vol.
1%
Clariana Barao
$319 Vol.
<1%
Renan Santos
$319 Vol.
<1%
Edmilson Costa
$334 Vol.
<1%
Écrivain Augusto Cury
$334 Vol.
<1%
Hertz Dias
$323 Vol.
<1%
Pablo Marçal
$356 Vol.
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
$411 Vol.
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$334 Vol.
<1%
Samara
$291 Vol.
<1%
Vétérinaire Wilson Grassi
$290 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Pernambuco, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Pernambuco.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Pernambuco. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula's overwhelming lead in the Pernambuco first-round presidential market stems from sustained regional backing in the Northeast, where recent Datafolha and Real Time Big Data surveys show him at 55-56% against far lower shares for rivals like Flávio Bolsonaro. As a native son with established voter coalitions and government approval ratings near 60% in the state, his position reflects entrenched patterns ahead of the October 2026 vote. Other candidates register minimal traction in local polling. While national economic shifts, turnout changes, or late developments could narrow gaps, the current trader consensus highlights substantial structural advantages for the incumbent in this key electoral stronghold.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Pernambuco, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Pernambuco.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Pernambuco. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Pernambuco.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Pernambuco. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Marché ouvert : Aug 17, 2026, 6:33 AM ET
Volume
$10,145Date de fin
4 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 17, 2026, 6:33 AM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Pernambuco, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Pernambuco.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Pernambuco. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula's overwhelming lead in the Pernambuco first-round presidential market stems from sustained regional backing in the Northeast, where recent Datafolha and Real Time Big Data surveys show him at 55-56% against far lower shares for rivals like Flávio Bolsonaro. As a native son with established voter coalitions and government approval ratings near 60% in the state, his position reflects entrenched patterns ahead of the October 2026 vote. Other candidates register minimal traction in local polling. While national economic shifts, turnout changes, or late developments could narrow gaps, the current trader consensus highlights substantial structural advantages for the incumbent in this key electoral stronghold.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Pernambuco, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Pernambuco.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Pernambuco. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Pernambuco.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Pernambuco. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$10,145Date de fin
4 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 17, 2026, 6:33 AM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Lula's overwhelming lead in the Pernambuco first-round presidential market stems from sustained regional backing in the Northeast, where recent Datafolha and Real Time Big Data surveys show him at 55-56% against far lower shares for rivals like Flávio Bolsonaro. As a native son with established voter coalitions and government approval ratings near 60% in the state, his position reflects entrenched patterns ahead of the October 2026 vote. Other candidates register minimal traction in local polling. While national economic shifts, turnout changes, or late developments could narrow gaps, the current trader consensus highlights substantial structural advantages for the incumbent in this key electoral stronghold.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourConnexes
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