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Politique·Brésil

Vainqueur de l'élection du gouverneur de Roraima

icon for Vainqueur de l'élection du gouverneur de Roraima
Politique·Brésil

Vainqueur de l'élection du gouverneur de Roraima

Farah Mesquita 45%

Arthur Henrique 44%

Clébio Genuíno 44%

Rosi Aires 44%

Polymarket
NOUVEAU

Farah Mesquita 45%

Arthur Henrique 44%

Clébio Genuíno 44%

Rosi Aires 44%

Polymarket
NOUVEAU
icon for Farah Mesquita

Farah Mesquita

$0 Vol.

45%

icon for Arthur Henrique

Arthur Henrique

$0 Vol.

44%

icon for Clébio Genuíno

Clébio Genuíno

$0 Vol.

44%

icon for Rosi Aires

Rosi Aires

$0 Vol.

44%

icon for Soldado Sampaio

Soldado Sampaio

$0 Vol.

44%

The Roraima gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The 2026 Roraima special gubernatorial election on June 21 produced a decisive first-round result, with Arthur Henrique (PL) securing roughly 61% of valid votes against Soldado Sampaio (Republicanos) at 36%, alongside lower shares for candidates including Farah Mesquita, Rosi Aires, and others. Persistent legal challenges to Henrique’s eligibility—his candidacy remains sub judice pending court rulings—have prevented certification and kept trader probabilities clustered near even odds. This judicial overhang, rather than polling gaps or coalition shifts, sustains the tight market by leaving open scenarios such as a runoff, annulment, or alternative winner. Upcoming tribunal decisions on eligibility and mandate length through 2027 represent the primary catalysts that could separate outcomes.

The Roraima gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.

Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.

If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$0
Date de fin
4 oct. 2026
Marché ouvert
Aug 17, 2026, 5:38 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The Roraima gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
The Roraima gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The 2026 Roraima special gubernatorial election on June 21 produced a decisive first-round result, with Arthur Henrique (PL) securing roughly 61% of valid votes against Soldado Sampaio (Republicanos) at 36%, alongside lower shares for candidates including Farah Mesquita, Rosi Aires, and others. Persistent legal challenges to Henrique’s eligibility—his candidacy remains sub judice pending court rulings—have prevented certification and kept trader probabilities clustered near even odds. This judicial overhang, rather than polling gaps or coalition shifts, sustains the tight market by leaving open scenarios such as a runoff, annulment, or alternative winner. Upcoming tribunal decisions on eligibility and mandate length through 2027 represent the primary catalysts that could separate outcomes.

The Roraima gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.

Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.

If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$0
Date de fin
4 oct. 2026
Marché ouvert
Aug 17, 2026, 5:38 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The Roraima gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).

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Méfiez-vous des liens externes.

Questions fréquentes

« Vainqueur de l'élection du gouverneur de Roraima » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 5 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « Farah Mesquita » à 45%, suivi de « Arthur Henrique » à 44%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 45¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 45% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

« Vainqueur de l'élection du gouverneur de Roraima » est un marché nouvellement créé sur Polymarket, lancé le Aug 17, 2026. En tant que marché récent, c'est votre opportunité d'être parmi les premiers traders à définir les cotes et établir les premiers signaux de prix du marché. Vous pouvez également ajouter cette page à vos favoris pour suivre le volume et l'activité de trading au fil du temps.

Pour trader sur « Vainqueur de l'élection du gouverneur de Roraima », parcourez les 5 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « Vainqueur de l'élection du gouverneur de Roraima » est « Farah Mesquita » à 45%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 45% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « Arthur Henrique » à 44%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Vainqueur de l'élection du gouverneur de Roraima » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.