Marcos Rogério (PL) leads the 2026 Rondônia gubernatorial race with 67.5% implied probability on Polymarket, reflecting his official nomination at the July party convention in Porto Velho and consistent polling advantages of 8–14 points over rivals. The fragmented field includes Adailton Fúria (PSD) at 14%, backed by term-limited incumbent Marcos Rocha, plus Expedito Netto, Samuel Costa, Hildon Chaves, and Pedro Abib, each below 6%. Key drivers include Rogério’s established Senate profile, PL party infrastructure, and debates over state concessions such as the water and sewage auction, which have sharpened opposition lines. Trader consensus prices the race as a clear favorite for Rogério while assigning low single-digit odds to lesser-known contenders, consistent with early survey trends ahead of the October 4 first round.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourMarcos Rogério 68%
Adailton Furia 13%
Expedito Netto 6%
Samuel Costa 4.0%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
4 oct. 2026
Marcos Rogério
68%
Adailton Furia
13%
Expedito Netto
6%
Samuel Costa
4%
Hildon Chaves
4%
Pedro Abib
3%
Marcos Rogério 68%
Adailton Furia 13%
Expedito Netto 6%
Samuel Costa 4.0%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
4 oct. 2026
Marcos Rogério
$478 Vol.
68%
Adailton Furia
$403 Vol.
13%
Expedito Netto
$444 Vol.
6%
Samuel Costa
$84 Vol.
4%
Hildon Chaves
$336 Vol.
4%
Pedro Abib
$126 Vol.
3%
The Rondônia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Marcos Rogério (PL) leads the 2026 Rondônia gubernatorial race with 67.5% implied probability on Polymarket, reflecting his official nomination at the July party convention in Porto Velho and consistent polling advantages of 8–14 points over rivals. The fragmented field includes Adailton Fúria (PSD) at 14%, backed by term-limited incumbent Marcos Rocha, plus Expedito Netto, Samuel Costa, Hildon Chaves, and Pedro Abib, each below 6%. Key drivers include Rogério’s established Senate profile, PL party infrastructure, and debates over state concessions such as the water and sewage auction, which have sharpened opposition lines. Trader consensus prices the race as a clear favorite for Rogério while assigning low single-digit odds to lesser-known contenders, consistent with early survey trends ahead of the October 4 first round.
The Rondônia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Marché ouvert : Aug 17, 2026, 5:38 AM ET
Volume
$1,871Date de fin
4 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 17, 2026, 5:38 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Rondônia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Marcos Rogério (PL) leads the 2026 Rondônia gubernatorial race with 67.5% implied probability on Polymarket, reflecting his official nomination at the July party convention in Porto Velho and consistent polling advantages of 8–14 points over rivals. The fragmented field includes Adailton Fúria (PSD) at 14%, backed by term-limited incumbent Marcos Rocha, plus Expedito Netto, Samuel Costa, Hildon Chaves, and Pedro Abib, each below 6%. Key drivers include Rogério’s established Senate profile, PL party infrastructure, and debates over state concessions such as the water and sewage auction, which have sharpened opposition lines. Trader consensus prices the race as a clear favorite for Rogério while assigning low single-digit odds to lesser-known contenders, consistent with early survey trends ahead of the October 4 first round.
The Rondônia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$1,871Date de fin
4 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 17, 2026, 5:38 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Marcos Rogério (PL) leads the 2026 Rondônia gubernatorial race with 67.5% implied probability on Polymarket, reflecting his official nomination at the July party convention in Porto Velho and consistent polling advantages of 8–14 points over rivals. The fragmented field includes Adailton Fúria (PSD) at 14%, backed by term-limited incumbent Marcos Rocha, plus Expedito Netto, Samuel Costa, Hildon Chaves, and Pedro Abib, each below 6%. Key drivers include Rogério’s established Senate profile, PL party infrastructure, and debates over state concessions such as the water and sewage auction, which have sharpened opposition lines. Trader consensus prices the race as a clear favorite for Rogério while assigning low single-digit odds to lesser-known contenders, consistent with early survey trends ahead of the October 4 first round.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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