Flávio Bolsonaro holds a narrow edge in Rio de Janeiro first-round sentiment due to his established senatorial base and family political network in the state, while national polls show Lula and other contenders remaining competitive ahead of the October 4 vote. Crime and security concerns, highlighted by recent police operations, continue to shape voter priorities in the region and support right-leaning candidates. Lula’s incumbency and policy focus on economic programs provide counterbalancing appeal, but fragmented opposition fields including Ronaldo Caiado and Renan Santos limit clear separation. Upcoming debates and last-minute endorsements could shift regional momentum, reflecting the closely contested nature of the state outcome.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourFlavio Bolsonaro 58%
Lula 34%
Renan Santos 17%
Ronaldo Caiado 12%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
4 oct. 2026
Flavio Bolsonaro
58%
Lula
34%
Renan Santos
17%
Ronaldo Caiado
12%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
8%
Edmilson Costa
1%
Hertz Dias
1%
Pablo Marçal
1%
Zema
1%
Clariana Barao
1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
1%
Samara
1%
Flavio Bolsonaro 58%
Lula 34%
Renan Santos 17%
Ronaldo Caiado 12%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
4 oct. 2026
Flavio Bolsonaro
$0 Vol.
58%
Lula
$0 Vol.
34%
Renan Santos
$63 Vol.
17%
Ronaldo Caiado
$63 Vol.
12%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
$176 Vol.
8%
Edmilson Costa
$202 Vol.
1%
Hertz Dias
$202 Vol.
1%
Pablo Marçal
$180 Vol.
1%
Zema
$202 Vol.
1%
Clariana Barao
$204 Vol.
1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
$202 Vol.
1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$180 Vol.
1%
Samara
$182 Vol.
1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rio de Janeiro.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rio de Janeiro. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flávio Bolsonaro holds a narrow edge in Rio de Janeiro first-round sentiment due to his established senatorial base and family political network in the state, while national polls show Lula and other contenders remaining competitive ahead of the October 4 vote. Crime and security concerns, highlighted by recent police operations, continue to shape voter priorities in the region and support right-leaning candidates. Lula’s incumbency and policy focus on economic programs provide counterbalancing appeal, but fragmented opposition fields including Ronaldo Caiado and Renan Santos limit clear separation. Upcoming debates and last-minute endorsements could shift regional momentum, reflecting the closely contested nature of the state outcome.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rio de Janeiro.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rio de Janeiro. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rio de Janeiro.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rio de Janeiro. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Marché ouvert : Aug 17, 2026, 6:34 AM ET
Volume
$1,856Date de fin
4 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 17, 2026, 6:34 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rio de Janeiro.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rio de Janeiro. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flávio Bolsonaro holds a narrow edge in Rio de Janeiro first-round sentiment due to his established senatorial base and family political network in the state, while national polls show Lula and other contenders remaining competitive ahead of the October 4 vote. Crime and security concerns, highlighted by recent police operations, continue to shape voter priorities in the region and support right-leaning candidates. Lula’s incumbency and policy focus on economic programs provide counterbalancing appeal, but fragmented opposition fields including Ronaldo Caiado and Renan Santos limit clear separation. Upcoming debates and last-minute endorsements could shift regional momentum, reflecting the closely contested nature of the state outcome.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rio de Janeiro.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rio de Janeiro. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rio de Janeiro.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rio de Janeiro. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$1,856Date de fin
4 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 17, 2026, 6:34 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Flávio Bolsonaro holds a narrow edge in Rio de Janeiro first-round sentiment due to his established senatorial base and family political network in the state, while national polls show Lula and other contenders remaining competitive ahead of the October 4 vote. Crime and security concerns, highlighted by recent police operations, continue to shape voter priorities in the region and support right-leaning candidates. Lula’s incumbency and policy focus on economic programs provide counterbalancing appeal, but fragmented opposition fields including Ronaldo Caiado and Renan Santos limit clear separation. Upcoming debates and last-minute endorsements could shift regional momentum, reflecting the closely contested nature of the state outcome.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourConnexes
Flavio Bolsonaro obtiendra-t-il le plus de voix lors de la prochaine élection présidentielle brésilienne à São Paulo ?
48%
Oui
Ronaldo Caiado remportera-t-il le plus de voix lors de la prochaine élection présidentielle brésilienne dans le District fédéral ?
42%
Oui
Lula remportera-t-il le plus de voix lors de la prochaine élection présidentielle au Brésil dans le Pará ?
46%
Oui
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