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Politique·Élection Principale

Premier tour de l'élection présidentielle brésilienne : 1ère place à Maranhão

icon for Premier tour de l'élection présidentielle brésilienne : 1ère place à Maranhão
Politique·Élection Principale

Premier tour de l'élection présidentielle brésilienne : 1ère place à Maranhão

Lula 85%

Samara 20%

Veterinário Wilson Grassi 19%

Ronaldo Caiado 18%

Polymarket
NOUVEAU

Lula 85%

Samara 20%

Veterinário Wilson Grassi 19%

Ronaldo Caiado 18%

Polymarket
NOUVEAU
icon for Lula

Lula

$588 Vol.

85%

icon for Samara

Samara

$0 Vol.

20%

icon for Veterinário Wilson Grassi

Veterinário Wilson Grassi

$0 Vol.

19%

icon for Ronaldo Caiado

Ronaldo Caiado

$0 Vol.

18%

icon for Clariana Barao

Clariana Barao

$0 Vol.

14%

icon for Renan Santos

Renan Santos

$0 Vol.

11%

icon for Flavio Bolsonaro

Flavio Bolsonaro

$0 Vol.

9%

icon for Pablo Marçal

Pablo Marçal

$0 Vol.

9%

icon for Escritor Augusto Cury

Escritor Augusto Cury

$0 Vol.

9%

icon for Edmilson Costa

Edmilson Costa

$0 Vol.

7%

icon for Hertz Dias

Hertz Dias

$0 Vol.

7%

icon for Zema

Zema

$0 Vol.

7%

icon for Rui Costa Pimenta

Rui Costa Pimenta

$0 Vol.

6%

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Maranhão, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Maranhão. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Maranhão. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).**Trader consensus in this Polymarket reflects substantial uncertainty over first-round vote leadership in Maranhão, with leading contracts clustered tightly between roughly 43% and 50%.** National polling shows incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) ahead overall at 38–42%, followed by Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) at 28–35%, while other declared candidates remain in single digits. Maranhão’s Northeast profile, where PT-aligned voters have historically consolidated, keeps Lula’s local positioning competitive, yet the broader field—including Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, Renan Santos, and several lower-polling names—fragments support. The official campaign window opened August 15 with registration closed, leaving limited time for regional swings before the October 4 vote. No single recent event or endorsement has produced clear separation in state-level indicators, sustaining the narrow price range across contenders.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Maranhão, Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Maranhão.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Maranhão. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$588
Date de fin
4 oct. 2026
Marché ouvert
Aug 17, 2026, 6:30 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Maranhão, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Maranhão. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Maranhão. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Maranhão, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Maranhão. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Maranhão. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).**Trader consensus in this Polymarket reflects substantial uncertainty over first-round vote leadership in Maranhão, with leading contracts clustered tightly between roughly 43% and 50%.** National polling shows incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) ahead overall at 38–42%, followed by Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) at 28–35%, while other declared candidates remain in single digits. Maranhão’s Northeast profile, where PT-aligned voters have historically consolidated, keeps Lula’s local positioning competitive, yet the broader field—including Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, Renan Santos, and several lower-polling names—fragments support. The official campaign window opened August 15 with registration closed, leaving limited time for regional swings before the October 4 vote. No single recent event or endorsement has produced clear separation in state-level indicators, sustaining the narrow price range across contenders.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Maranhão, Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Maranhão.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Maranhão. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$588
Date de fin
4 oct. 2026
Marché ouvert
Aug 17, 2026, 6:30 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Maranhão, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Maranhão. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Maranhão. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Connexes

icon for Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Rio de Janeiro?

Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Rio de Janeiro?

52%
icon for Lula obtiendra-t-il le plus de voix lors de la prochaine élection présidentielle au Brésil en Paraíba ?

Lula obtiendra-t-il le plus de voix lors de la prochaine élection présidentielle au Brésil en Paraíba ?

86%
Oui
icon for Lula obtiendra-t-il le plus de voix lors de la prochaine élection présidentielle brésilienne dans le Pernambouc ?

Lula obtiendra-t-il le plus de voix lors de la prochaine élection présidentielle brésilienne dans le Pernambouc ?

95%
Oui

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Questions fréquentes

« Premier tour de l'élection présidentielle brésilienne : 1ère place à Maranhão » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 13 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « Lula » à 85%, suivi de « Samara » à 20%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 85¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 85% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

« Premier tour de l'élection présidentielle brésilienne : 1ère place à Maranhão » est un marché nouvellement créé sur Polymarket, lancé le Aug 17, 2026. En tant que marché récent, c'est votre opportunité d'être parmi les premiers traders à définir les cotes et établir les premiers signaux de prix du marché. Vous pouvez également ajouter cette page à vos favoris pour suivre le volume et l'activité de trading au fil du temps.

Pour trader sur « Premier tour de l'élection présidentielle brésilienne : 1ère place à Maranhão », parcourez les 13 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « Premier tour de l'élection présidentielle brésilienne : 1ère place à Maranhão » est « Lula » à 85%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 85% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « Samara » à 20%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Premier tour de l'élection présidentielle brésilienne : 1ère place à Maranhão » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.