The open-seat contest for Rio Grande do Sul governor on October 4 remains tightly contested because early first-round polling shows PDT pre-candidate Juliana Brizola and PL pre-candidate Luciano Zucco locked in a technical tie near 21-24 percent, with high undecided shares and a fragmented field that includes MDB's Gabriel Souza. Trader consensus assigns near-even implied probabilities to the two leading outcomes, reflecting national polarization patterns where Zucco draws from Bolsonaro-aligned voters and Brizola from Lula-aligned forces, while Souza trails as the continuity option tied to term-limited Governor Eduardo Leite. Coalition negotiations, second-round runoff matchups, and any consolidation among smaller parties could shift the balance before election day.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourRio Grande do Sul Governor Election Winner
Rio Grande do Sul Governor Election Winner
Juliana Brizola 44%
Luciano Zucco 39%
Gabriel Souza 8.0%
Marcelo Maranata <1%
$64,359 Vol.
$64,359 Vol.
4 oct. 2026
Juliana Brizola
44%
Luciano Zucco
39%
Gabriel Souza
8%
Marcelo Maranata
<1%
Luis Carlos Heinze
<1%
Juliana Brizola 44%
Luciano Zucco 39%
Gabriel Souza 8.0%
Marcelo Maranata <1%
$64,359 Vol.
$64,359 Vol.
4 oct. 2026
Juliana Brizola
$27,392 Vol.
44%
Luciano Zucco
$24,795 Vol.
39%
Gabriel Souza
$5,517 Vol.
8%
Marcelo Maranata
$5,451 Vol.
<1%
Luis Carlos Heinze
$1,204 Vol.
<1%
The Rio Grande do Sul gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The open-seat contest for Rio Grande do Sul governor on October 4 remains tightly contested because early first-round polling shows PDT pre-candidate Juliana Brizola and PL pre-candidate Luciano Zucco locked in a technical tie near 21-24 percent, with high undecided shares and a fragmented field that includes MDB's Gabriel Souza. Trader consensus assigns near-even implied probabilities to the two leading outcomes, reflecting national polarization patterns where Zucco draws from Bolsonaro-aligned voters and Brizola from Lula-aligned forces, while Souza trails as the continuity option tied to term-limited Governor Eduardo Leite. Coalition negotiations, second-round runoff matchups, and any consolidation among smaller parties could shift the balance before election day.
The Rio Grande do Sul gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Marché ouvert : May 28, 2026, 5:40 PM ET
Volume
$64,359Date de fin
4 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
May 28, 2026, 5:40 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Rio Grande do Sul gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The open-seat contest for Rio Grande do Sul governor on October 4 remains tightly contested because early first-round polling shows PDT pre-candidate Juliana Brizola and PL pre-candidate Luciano Zucco locked in a technical tie near 21-24 percent, with high undecided shares and a fragmented field that includes MDB's Gabriel Souza. Trader consensus assigns near-even implied probabilities to the two leading outcomes, reflecting national polarization patterns where Zucco draws from Bolsonaro-aligned voters and Brizola from Lula-aligned forces, while Souza trails as the continuity option tied to term-limited Governor Eduardo Leite. Coalition negotiations, second-round runoff matchups, and any consolidation among smaller parties could shift the balance before election day.
The Rio Grande do Sul gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$64,359Date de fin
4 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
May 28, 2026, 5:40 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The open-seat contest for Rio Grande do Sul governor on October 4 remains tightly contested because early first-round polling shows PDT pre-candidate Juliana Brizola and PL pre-candidate Luciano Zucco locked in a technical tie near 21-24 percent, with high undecided shares and a fragmented field that includes MDB's Gabriel Souza. Trader consensus assigns near-even implied probabilities to the two leading outcomes, reflecting national polarization patterns where Zucco draws from Bolsonaro-aligned voters and Brizola from Lula-aligned forces, while Souza trails as the continuity option tied to term-limited Governor Eduardo Leite. Coalition negotiations, second-round runoff matchups, and any consolidation among smaller parties could shift the balance before election day.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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