The tight contest for Bahia governor centers on incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues of the PT facing off against challenger ACM Neto of União Brasil in a rematch of their 2022 runoff. Recent polling remains volatile, with a mid-May Paraná Pesquisas survey showing Neto ahead at 47.8 percent to Rodrigues’s 38.7 percent, while April Quaest data produced a technical tie at 41-37 percent. Rodrigues benefits from incumbency advantages, PT organizational strength across the state since 2007, and approval ratings near 54 percent. Neto draws support from his record as former Salvador mayor and opposition gains in 2024 municipal contests. Trader consensus at 52 percent for Rodrigues versus 47.5 percent for Neto could shift with the August campaign start, candidate endorsements, televised debates, or changes in national economic sentiment ahead of the October 4 first round.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourJerônimo Rodrigues 52%
ACM Neto 48%
Kleber Rosa <1%
João Roma <1%
$13,694 Vol.
$13,694 Vol.
4 oct. 2026
Jerônimo Rodrigues
52%
ACM Neto
48%
Kleber Rosa
<1%
João Roma
<1%
Bruno Soares Reis
<1%
José Carlos Aleluia
<1%
Rui Costa
<1%
Jerônimo Rodrigues 52%
ACM Neto 48%
Kleber Rosa <1%
João Roma <1%
$13,694 Vol.
$13,694 Vol.
4 oct. 2026
Jerônimo Rodrigues
$3,666 Vol.
52%
ACM Neto
$3,660 Vol.
48%
Kleber Rosa
$1,281 Vol.
<1%
João Roma
$966 Vol.
<1%
Bruno Soares Reis
$1,060 Vol.
<1%
José Carlos Aleluia
$1,938 Vol.
<1%
Rui Costa
$1,124 Vol.
<1%
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The tight contest for Bahia governor centers on incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues of the PT facing off against challenger ACM Neto of União Brasil in a rematch of their 2022 runoff. Recent polling remains volatile, with a mid-May Paraná Pesquisas survey showing Neto ahead at 47.8 percent to Rodrigues’s 38.7 percent, while April Quaest data produced a technical tie at 41-37 percent. Rodrigues benefits from incumbency advantages, PT organizational strength across the state since 2007, and approval ratings near 54 percent. Neto draws support from his record as former Salvador mayor and opposition gains in 2024 municipal contests. Trader consensus at 52 percent for Rodrigues versus 47.5 percent for Neto could shift with the August campaign start, candidate endorsements, televised debates, or changes in national economic sentiment ahead of the October 4 first round.
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Marché ouvert : Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ET
Volume
$13,694Date de fin
4 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The tight contest for Bahia governor centers on incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues of the PT facing off against challenger ACM Neto of União Brasil in a rematch of their 2022 runoff. Recent polling remains volatile, with a mid-May Paraná Pesquisas survey showing Neto ahead at 47.8 percent to Rodrigues’s 38.7 percent, while April Quaest data produced a technical tie at 41-37 percent. Rodrigues benefits from incumbency advantages, PT organizational strength across the state since 2007, and approval ratings near 54 percent. Neto draws support from his record as former Salvador mayor and opposition gains in 2024 municipal contests. Trader consensus at 52 percent for Rodrigues versus 47.5 percent for Neto could shift with the August campaign start, candidate endorsements, televised debates, or changes in national economic sentiment ahead of the October 4 first round.
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$13,694Date de fin
4 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The tight contest for Bahia governor centers on incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues of the PT facing off against challenger ACM Neto of União Brasil in a rematch of their 2022 runoff. Recent polling remains volatile, with a mid-May Paraná Pesquisas survey showing Neto ahead at 47.8 percent to Rodrigues’s 38.7 percent, while April Quaest data produced a technical tie at 41-37 percent. Rodrigues benefits from incumbency advantages, PT organizational strength across the state since 2007, and approval ratings near 54 percent. Neto draws support from his record as former Salvador mayor and opposition gains in 2024 municipal contests. Trader consensus at 52 percent for Rodrigues versus 47.5 percent for Neto could shift with the August campaign start, candidate endorsements, televised debates, or changes in national economic sentiment ahead of the October 4 first round.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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