The tight race between incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT) and ACM Neto (União Brasil) for Bahia governor stems from a 2022 rematch now shaped by recent polling shifts and local dynamics ahead of the October 2026 vote. Rodrigues’s approval ratings have stabilized in the mid-50s percent range on education and infrastructure, narrowing Neto’s earlier lead as municipal leaders who backed the challenger in 2022 have shifted support. A recent debate highlighted differences on public safety and state management, while national political realignments after União’s break with the federal government add context without decisive local impact. Multiple August surveys show the pair separated by just a few points within margins of error, sustaining trader consensus around even odds and leaving room for late campaign developments or turnout patterns to widen the gap.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourACM Neto 48%
Jerônimo Rodrigues 47%
Kleber Rosa <1%
José Carlos Aleluia <1%
$107,742 Vol.
$107,742 Vol.
4 oct. 2026
ACM Neto
48%
Jerônimo Rodrigues
47%
Kleber Rosa
<1%
José Carlos Aleluia
<1%
João Roma
<1%
Bruno Soares Reis
<1%
Rui Costa
<1%
ACM Neto 48%
Jerônimo Rodrigues 47%
Kleber Rosa <1%
José Carlos Aleluia <1%
$107,742 Vol.
$107,742 Vol.
4 oct. 2026
ACM Neto
$35,900 Vol.
48%
Jerônimo Rodrigues
$34,663 Vol.
47%
Kleber Rosa
$11,407 Vol.
<1%
José Carlos Aleluia
$9,514 Vol.
<1%
João Roma
$5,186 Vol.
<1%
Bruno Soares Reis
$5,325 Vol.
<1%
Rui Costa
$5,747 Vol.
<1%
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The tight race between incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT) and ACM Neto (União Brasil) for Bahia governor stems from a 2022 rematch now shaped by recent polling shifts and local dynamics ahead of the October 2026 vote. Rodrigues’s approval ratings have stabilized in the mid-50s percent range on education and infrastructure, narrowing Neto’s earlier lead as municipal leaders who backed the challenger in 2022 have shifted support. A recent debate highlighted differences on public safety and state management, while national political realignments after União’s break with the federal government add context without decisive local impact. Multiple August surveys show the pair separated by just a few points within margins of error, sustaining trader consensus around even odds and leaving room for late campaign developments or turnout patterns to widen the gap.
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Marché ouvert : Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ET
Volume
$107,742Date de fin
4 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The tight race between incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT) and ACM Neto (União Brasil) for Bahia governor stems from a 2022 rematch now shaped by recent polling shifts and local dynamics ahead of the October 2026 vote. Rodrigues’s approval ratings have stabilized in the mid-50s percent range on education and infrastructure, narrowing Neto’s earlier lead as municipal leaders who backed the challenger in 2022 have shifted support. A recent debate highlighted differences on public safety and state management, while national political realignments after União’s break with the federal government add context without decisive local impact. Multiple August surveys show the pair separated by just a few points within margins of error, sustaining trader consensus around even odds and leaving room for late campaign developments or turnout patterns to widen the gap.
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$107,742Date de fin
4 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The tight race between incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT) and ACM Neto (União Brasil) for Bahia governor stems from a 2022 rematch now shaped by recent polling shifts and local dynamics ahead of the October 2026 vote. Rodrigues’s approval ratings have stabilized in the mid-50s percent range on education and infrastructure, narrowing Neto’s earlier lead as municipal leaders who backed the challenger in 2022 have shifted support. A recent debate highlighted differences on public safety and state management, while national political realignments after União’s break with the federal government add context without decisive local impact. Multiple August surveys show the pair separated by just a few points within margins of error, sustaining trader consensus around even odds and leaving room for late campaign developments or turnout patterns to widen the gap.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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