Incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues of the PT holds a narrow trader consensus lead over ACM Neto of União Brasil in the October 4, 2026, first-round contest, reflecting a polarized rematch of their 2022 runoff. Recent polling averages show the candidates statistically tied or within a few points, with Rodrigues benefiting from recovered approval ratings in the mid-50s to low-60s range on education and infrastructure delivery, while Neto draws support from national right-wing alignments following União Brasil’s 2025 break with the federal government. The August 9 debate highlighted differences on public security and economic management without shifting the balance decisively. With voter turnout, coalition negotiations, and late campaign momentum still fluid in this large Northeastern state, small movements in swing municipalities or national political tailwinds could separate the frontrunners before election day.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourJerônimo Rodrigues 50%
ACM Neto 47%
Kleber Rosa <1%
José Carlos Aleluia <1%
$107,708 Vol.
$107,708 Vol.
4 oct. 2026
Jerônimo Rodrigues
50%
ACM Neto
47%
Kleber Rosa
<1%
José Carlos Aleluia
<1%
João Roma
<1%
Bruno Soares Reis
<1%
Rui Costa
<1%
Jerônimo Rodrigues 50%
ACM Neto 47%
Kleber Rosa <1%
José Carlos Aleluia <1%
$107,708 Vol.
$107,708 Vol.
4 oct. 2026
Jerônimo Rodrigues
$34,629 Vol.
50%
ACM Neto
$35,900 Vol.
47%
Kleber Rosa
$11,407 Vol.
<1%
José Carlos Aleluia
$9,514 Vol.
<1%
João Roma
$5,186 Vol.
<1%
Bruno Soares Reis
$5,325 Vol.
<1%
Rui Costa
$5,747 Vol.
<1%
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues of the PT holds a narrow trader consensus lead over ACM Neto of União Brasil in the October 4, 2026, first-round contest, reflecting a polarized rematch of their 2022 runoff. Recent polling averages show the candidates statistically tied or within a few points, with Rodrigues benefiting from recovered approval ratings in the mid-50s to low-60s range on education and infrastructure delivery, while Neto draws support from national right-wing alignments following União Brasil’s 2025 break with the federal government. The August 9 debate highlighted differences on public security and economic management without shifting the balance decisively. With voter turnout, coalition negotiations, and late campaign momentum still fluid in this large Northeastern state, small movements in swing municipalities or national political tailwinds could separate the frontrunners before election day.
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Marché ouvert : Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ET
Volume
$107,708Date de fin
4 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues of the PT holds a narrow trader consensus lead over ACM Neto of União Brasil in the October 4, 2026, first-round contest, reflecting a polarized rematch of their 2022 runoff. Recent polling averages show the candidates statistically tied or within a few points, with Rodrigues benefiting from recovered approval ratings in the mid-50s to low-60s range on education and infrastructure delivery, while Neto draws support from national right-wing alignments following União Brasil’s 2025 break with the federal government. The August 9 debate highlighted differences on public security and economic management without shifting the balance decisively. With voter turnout, coalition negotiations, and late campaign momentum still fluid in this large Northeastern state, small movements in swing municipalities or national political tailwinds could separate the frontrunners before election day.
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$107,708Date de fin
4 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues of the PT holds a narrow trader consensus lead over ACM Neto of União Brasil in the October 4, 2026, first-round contest, reflecting a polarized rematch of their 2022 runoff. Recent polling averages show the candidates statistically tied or within a few points, with Rodrigues benefiting from recovered approval ratings in the mid-50s to low-60s range on education and infrastructure delivery, while Neto draws support from national right-wing alignments following União Brasil’s 2025 break with the federal government. The August 9 debate highlighted differences on public security and economic management without shifting the balance decisively. With voter turnout, coalition negotiations, and late campaign momentum still fluid in this large Northeastern state, small movements in swing municipalities or national political tailwinds could separate the frontrunners before election day.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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