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icon for Prochain chancelier d'Allemagne avant 2028 ?
Monde·Allemagne

Prochain chancelier d'Allemagne avant 2028 ?

icon for Prochain chancelier d'Allemagne avant 2028 ?
Monde·Allemagne

Prochain chancelier d'Allemagne avant 2028 ?

Pas de nouveau Chancelier avant 2028 54%

Hendrik Wüst 16%

Markus Söder 14%

Boris Pistorius 8%

Polymarket
NOUVEAU

Pas de nouveau Chancelier avant 2028 54%

Hendrik Wüst 16%

Markus Söder 14%

Boris Pistorius 8%

Polymarket
NOUVEAU
icon for Pas de nouveau Chancelier avant 2028

Pas de nouveau Chancelier avant 2028

$2,234 Vol.

54%

icon for Hendrik Wüst

Hendrik Wüst

$275 Vol.

16%

icon for Markus Söder

Markus Söder

$649 Vol.

14%

icon for Boris Pistorius

Boris Pistorius

$476 Vol.

8%

icon for Katharina Dröge

Katharina Dröge

$156 Vol.

5%

icon for Alice Weidel

Alice Weidel

$200 Vol.

4%

icon for Tino Chrupalla

Tino Chrupalla

$153 Vol.

4%

icon for Felix Banaszak

Felix Banaszak

$340 Vol.

3%

icon for Lars Klingbeil

Lars Klingbeil

$128 Vol.

3%

icon for Heidi Reichinnek

Heidi Reichinnek

$120 Vol.

3%

icon for Carsten Linnemann

Carsten Linnemann

$128 Vol.

3%

icon for Sahra Wagenknecht

Sahra Wagenknecht

$146 Vol.

2%

icon for Jens Spahn

Jens Spahn

$145 Vol.

6%

Friedrich Merz has served as Chancellor of Germany since May 6, 2025. This market will resolve to the next individual, other than Friedrich Merz, who assumes the office of Chancellor of Germany. To count for resolution, the individual must be elected Chancellor by the Bundestag and appointed by the Federal President. Any acting or caretaker Chancellor will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Chancellor takes office, or if Friedrich Merz is the next individual elected Chancellor, by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next Chancellor before 2028”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bundestag and the Federal Government of Germany; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Friedrich Merz’s embattled position as chancellor, following the CDU’s heavy losses to the AfD in recent eastern state elections and his record-low approval ratings, has fueled speculation about a possible internal party replacement before the 2029 federal vote. Senior CDU state premiers have publicly rallied behind him to avoid destabilizing the coalition with the SPD, while names such as Hendrik Wüst and Markus Söder remain the most frequently discussed alternatives in leadership discussions. The absence of an open challenge or coalition collapse keeps the probability of any specific successor low, with traders assigning the highest weight to no change occurring before 2028. Upcoming state elections and national polling trends on AfD strength versus Union cohesion could quickly alter these assessments if they intensify pressure for a Kanzlertausch or trigger early Bundestag dissolution.

Friedrich Merz has served as Chancellor of Germany since May 6, 2025.

This market will resolve to the next individual, other than Friedrich Merz, who assumes the office of Chancellor of Germany.

To count for resolution, the individual must be elected Chancellor by the Bundestag and appointed by the Federal President. Any acting or caretaker Chancellor will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Chancellor takes office, or if Friedrich Merz is the next individual elected Chancellor, by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next Chancellor before 2028”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bundestag and the Federal Government of Germany; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Friedrich Merz has served as Chancellor of Germany since May 6, 2025. This market will resolve to the next individual, other than Friedrich Merz, who assumes the office of Chancellor of Germany. To count for resolution, the individual must be elected Chancellor by the Bundestag and appointed by the Federal President. Any acting or caretaker Chancellor will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Chancellor takes office, or if Friedrich Merz is the next individual elected Chancellor, by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next Chancellor before 2028”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bundestag and the Federal Government of Germany; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$5,149
Date de fin
1 janv. 2028
Marché ouvert
Sep 15, 2026, 5:28 PM ET

Résolveur

0x69c47De9D...
Friedrich Merz has served as Chancellor of Germany since May 6, 2025. This market will resolve to the next individual, other than Friedrich Merz, who assumes the office of Chancellor of Germany. To count for resolution, the individual must be elected Chancellor by the Bundestag and appointed by the Federal President. Any acting or caretaker Chancellor will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Chancellor takes office, or if Friedrich Merz is the next individual elected Chancellor, by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next Chancellor before 2028”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bundestag and the Federal Government of Germany; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Friedrich Merz’s embattled position as chancellor, following the CDU’s heavy losses to the AfD in recent eastern state elections and his record-low approval ratings, has fueled speculation about a possible internal party replacement before the 2029 federal vote. Senior CDU state premiers have publicly rallied behind him to avoid destabilizing the coalition with the SPD, while names such as Hendrik Wüst and Markus Söder remain the most frequently discussed alternatives in leadership discussions. The absence of an open challenge or coalition collapse keeps the probability of any specific successor low, with traders assigning the highest weight to no change occurring before 2028. Upcoming state elections and national polling trends on AfD strength versus Union cohesion could quickly alter these assessments if they intensify pressure for a Kanzlertausch or trigger early Bundestag dissolution.

Friedrich Merz has served as Chancellor of Germany since May 6, 2025.

This market will resolve to the next individual, other than Friedrich Merz, who assumes the office of Chancellor of Germany.

To count for resolution, the individual must be elected Chancellor by the Bundestag and appointed by the Federal President. Any acting or caretaker Chancellor will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Chancellor takes office, or if Friedrich Merz is the next individual elected Chancellor, by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next Chancellor before 2028”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bundestag and the Federal Government of Germany; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Friedrich Merz has served as Chancellor of Germany since May 6, 2025. This market will resolve to the next individual, other than Friedrich Merz, who assumes the office of Chancellor of Germany. To count for resolution, the individual must be elected Chancellor by the Bundestag and appointed by the Federal President. Any acting or caretaker Chancellor will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Chancellor takes office, or if Friedrich Merz is the next individual elected Chancellor, by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next Chancellor before 2028”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bundestag and the Federal Government of Germany; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$5,149
Date de fin
1 janv. 2028
Marché ouvert
Sep 15, 2026, 5:28 PM ET

Résolveur

0x69c47De9D...

Connexes

icon for Friedrich Merz ne sera plus chancelier d'Allemagne avant le 31 décembre 2026 ?

Friedrich Merz ne sera plus chancelier d'Allemagne avant le 31 décembre 2026 ?

20%
Oui
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Will Giorgia Meloni be the next Prime Minister of Italy?

50%
icon for Alexandru Nazare sera-t-il le prochain Premier ministre de la Roumanie ?

Alexandru Nazare sera-t-il le prochain Premier ministre de la Roumanie ?

53%
Oui

Méfiez-vous des liens externes.

Questions fréquentes

« Prochain chancelier d'Allemagne avant 2028 ? » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 13 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « Pas de nouveau Chancelier avant 2028 » à 54%, suivi de « Hendrik Wüst » à 16%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 54¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 54% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

« Prochain chancelier d'Allemagne avant 2028 ? » est un marché nouvellement créé sur Polymarket, lancé le Sep 15, 2026. En tant que marché récent, c'est votre opportunité d'être parmi les premiers traders à définir les cotes et établir les premiers signaux de prix du marché. Vous pouvez également ajouter cette page à vos favoris pour suivre le volume et l'activité de trading au fil du temps.

Pour trader sur « Prochain chancelier d'Allemagne avant 2028 ? », parcourez les 13 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « Prochain chancelier d'Allemagne avant 2028 ? » est « Pas de nouveau Chancelier avant 2028 » à 54%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 54% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « Hendrik Wüst » à 16%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Prochain chancelier d'Allemagne avant 2028 ? » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.