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Politique·Allemagne

La coalition fédérale allemande CDU/CSU–SPD se brisera-t-elle avant 2027 ?

icon for La coalition fédérale allemande CDU/CSU–SPD se brisera-t-elle avant 2027 ?
Politique·Allemagne

La coalition fédérale allemande CDU/CSU–SPD se brisera-t-elle avant 2027 ?

Oui

20% chance
Polymarket

$59,714 Vol.

Oui

20% chance
Polymarket

$59,714 Vol.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the governing coalition consisting of CDU/CSU and SPD breaks by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM CET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” For the purposes of this market, the coalition is considered broken if either CDU/CSU or SPD ceases to be a coalition partner in the federal government. A coalition break may be evidenced by: – a formal withdrawal from the coalition, – the resignation or dismissal of all ministers from one party, – or the appointment of a new federal government. If all ministers affiliated with one of the coalition parties resign or are dismissed, this may signal that party’s withdrawal from the coalition, even if one or more individuals remain in office as independents or continue without representing the party. If the coalition breaks and the sitting Chancellor remains in office with a new coalition or as a minority government, this market will still resolve to “Yes.” The break date is the date on which it becomes officially confirmed that the coalition has broken; mere reports of negotiations, speculation, or indications of an impending break will not suffice. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the German government; however, a consensus of credible reporting from major reputable news outlets may also be used.Despite ongoing internal disputes over tax, welfare, and health reforms, Chancellor Friedrich Merz has repeatedly affirmed the CDU/CSU-SPD coalition's commitment to completing its full term, most recently ruling out snap elections in early May 2026. Formed after the February 2025 federal election with a narrow Bundestag majority, the government has advanced key legislative priorities while facing public criticism and AfD polling gains. No party leaders have issued formal withdrawal threats or triggered coalition review mechanisms, and recent statements emphasize shared responsibility for economic stabilization. This stability underpins trader consensus that the arrangement is unlikely to fracture before 2027, even as surveys indicate broader public skepticism about its longevity.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the governing coalition consisting of CDU/CSU and SPD breaks by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM CET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

For the purposes of this market, the coalition is considered broken if either CDU/CSU or SPD ceases to be a coalition partner in the federal government.

A coalition break may be evidenced by:
– a formal withdrawal from the coalition,
– the resignation or dismissal of all ministers from one party,
– or the appointment of a new federal government.

If all ministers affiliated with one of the coalition parties resign or are dismissed, this may signal that party’s withdrawal from the coalition, even if one or more individuals remain in office as independents or continue without representing the party.

If the coalition breaks and the sitting Chancellor remains in office with a new coalition or as a minority government, this market will still resolve to “Yes.”

The break date is the date on which it becomes officially confirmed that the coalition has broken; mere reports of negotiations, speculation, or indications of an impending break will not suffice.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the German government; however, a consensus of credible reporting from major reputable news outlets may also be used.
Volume
$59,714
Date de fin
31 déc. 2026
Marché ouvert
Dec 3, 2025, 12:16 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the governing coalition consisting of CDU/CSU and SPD breaks by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM CET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” For the purposes of this market, the coalition is considered broken if either CDU/CSU or SPD ceases to be a coalition partner in the federal government. A coalition break may be evidenced by: – a formal withdrawal from the coalition, – the resignation or dismissal of all ministers from one party, – or the appointment of a new federal government. If all ministers affiliated with one of the coalition parties resign or are dismissed, this may signal that party’s withdrawal from the coalition, even if one or more individuals remain in office as independents or continue without representing the party. If the coalition breaks and the sitting Chancellor remains in office with a new coalition or as a minority government, this market will still resolve to “Yes.” The break date is the date on which it becomes officially confirmed that the coalition has broken; mere reports of negotiations, speculation, or indications of an impending break will not suffice. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the German government; however, a consensus of credible reporting from major reputable news outlets may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the governing coalition consisting of CDU/CSU and SPD breaks by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM CET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” For the purposes of this market, the coalition is considered broken if either CDU/CSU or SPD ceases to be a coalition partner in the federal government. A coalition break may be evidenced by: – a formal withdrawal from the coalition, – the resignation or dismissal of all ministers from one party, – or the appointment of a new federal government. If all ministers affiliated with one of the coalition parties resign or are dismissed, this may signal that party’s withdrawal from the coalition, even if one or more individuals remain in office as independents or continue without representing the party. If the coalition breaks and the sitting Chancellor remains in office with a new coalition or as a minority government, this market will still resolve to “Yes.” The break date is the date on which it becomes officially confirmed that the coalition has broken; mere reports of negotiations, speculation, or indications of an impending break will not suffice. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the German government; however, a consensus of credible reporting from major reputable news outlets may also be used.Despite ongoing internal disputes over tax, welfare, and health reforms, Chancellor Friedrich Merz has repeatedly affirmed the CDU/CSU-SPD coalition's commitment to completing its full term, most recently ruling out snap elections in early May 2026. Formed after the February 2025 federal election with a narrow Bundestag majority, the government has advanced key legislative priorities while facing public criticism and AfD polling gains. No party leaders have issued formal withdrawal threats or triggered coalition review mechanisms, and recent statements emphasize shared responsibility for economic stabilization. This stability underpins trader consensus that the arrangement is unlikely to fracture before 2027, even as surveys indicate broader public skepticism about its longevity.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the governing coalition consisting of CDU/CSU and SPD breaks by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM CET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

For the purposes of this market, the coalition is considered broken if either CDU/CSU or SPD ceases to be a coalition partner in the federal government.

A coalition break may be evidenced by:
– a formal withdrawal from the coalition,
– the resignation or dismissal of all ministers from one party,
– or the appointment of a new federal government.

If all ministers affiliated with one of the coalition parties resign or are dismissed, this may signal that party’s withdrawal from the coalition, even if one or more individuals remain in office as independents or continue without representing the party.

If the coalition breaks and the sitting Chancellor remains in office with a new coalition or as a minority government, this market will still resolve to “Yes.”

The break date is the date on which it becomes officially confirmed that the coalition has broken; mere reports of negotiations, speculation, or indications of an impending break will not suffice.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the German government; however, a consensus of credible reporting from major reputable news outlets may also be used.
Volume
$59,714
Date de fin
31 déc. 2026
Marché ouvert
Dec 3, 2025, 12:16 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the governing coalition consisting of CDU/CSU and SPD breaks by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM CET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” For the purposes of this market, the coalition is considered broken if either CDU/CSU or SPD ceases to be a coalition partner in the federal government. A coalition break may be evidenced by: – a formal withdrawal from the coalition, – the resignation or dismissal of all ministers from one party, – or the appointment of a new federal government. If all ministers affiliated with one of the coalition parties resign or are dismissed, this may signal that party’s withdrawal from the coalition, even if one or more individuals remain in office as independents or continue without representing the party. If the coalition breaks and the sitting Chancellor remains in office with a new coalition or as a minority government, this market will still resolve to “Yes.” The break date is the date on which it becomes officially confirmed that the coalition has broken; mere reports of negotiations, speculation, or indications of an impending break will not suffice. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the German government; however, a consensus of credible reporting from major reputable news outlets may also be used.

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Questions fréquentes

« La coalition fédérale allemande CDU/CSU–SPD se brisera-t-elle avant 2027 ? » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 2 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « La coalition fédérale CDU/CSU–SPD en Allemagne va-t-elle se briser avant 2027 ? » à 20%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 20¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 20% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

À ce jour, « La coalition fédérale allemande CDU/CSU–SPD se brisera-t-elle avant 2027 ? » a généré $59.7K en volume total de trading depuis le lancement du marché le Dec 3, 2025. Ce niveau d'activité reflète un fort engagement de la communauté Polymarket et garantit que les cotes actuelles sont alimentées par un large bassin de participants. Vous pouvez suivre les mouvements de prix en direct et trader sur n'importe quel résultat directement sur cette page.

Pour trader sur « La coalition fédérale allemande CDU/CSU–SPD se brisera-t-elle avant 2027 ? », parcourez les 2 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « La coalition fédérale allemande CDU/CSU–SPD se brisera-t-elle avant 2027 ? » est « La coalition fédérale CDU/CSU–SPD en Allemagne va-t-elle se briser avant 2027 ? » à 20%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 20% à ce résultat. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

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