The September 20, 2026, Abgeordnetenhaus election features a fragmented field where recent polls place Die Linke, CDU, AfD, Greens, and SPD within a few points of one another, with the incumbent CDU-SPD coalition weakened by leadership changes and scandals. Die Linke has gained ground in summer surveys while CDU support stabilized after its lead candidate withdrew. This arithmetic favors post-election negotiations among multiple parties, as no single bloc approaches a majority and the established “firewall” limits AfD inclusion. Key variables include turnout among younger voters newly enfranchised at 16, district-level results, and any late shifts in economic or housing sentiment that could alter the final seat distribution before coalition talks begin.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourNOUVEAU
31 déc. 2026
Verts
88%
SPD
84%
CDU
56%
Linke
54%
FDP
6%
AfD
6%
FW
4%
BSW
4%
$2,934 Vol.
Verts
$83 Vol.
88%
SPD
$104 Vol.
84%
CDU
$271 Vol.
56%
Linke
$359 Vol.
54%
FDP
$146 Vol.
6%
AfD
$1,118 Vol.
6%
FW
$573 Vol.
4%
BSW
$280 Vol.
4%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Berlin state government formed after the 2026 Berlin state election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve once the composition of the first Berlin state government following the 2026 state election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office.
The state government is considered formed when the newly elected Abgeordnetenhaus elects the Governing Mayor. A party is considered part of the state government if it provides at least one Senator, including the Governing Mayor. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Senator post will not qualify.
If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Senate of Berlin and the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin.The September 20, 2026, Abgeordnetenhaus election features a fragmented field where recent polls place Die Linke, CDU, AfD, Greens, and SPD within a few points of one another, with the incumbent CDU-SPD coalition weakened by leadership changes and scandals. Die Linke has gained ground in summer surveys while CDU support stabilized after its lead candidate withdrew. This arithmetic favors post-election negotiations among multiple parties, as no single bloc approaches a majority and the established “firewall” limits AfD inclusion. Key variables include turnout among younger voters newly enfranchised at 16, district-level results, and any late shifts in economic or housing sentiment that could alter the final seat distribution before coalition talks begin.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Berlin state government formed after the 2026 Berlin state election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve once the composition of the first Berlin state government following the 2026 state election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office.
The state government is considered formed when the newly elected Abgeordnetenhaus elects the Governing Mayor. A party is considered part of the state government if it provides at least one Senator, including the Governing Mayor. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Senator post will not qualify.
If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Senate of Berlin and the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Berlin state government formed after the 2026 Berlin state election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve once the composition of the first Berlin state government following the 2026 state election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office.
The state government is considered formed when the newly elected Abgeordnetenhaus elects the Governing Mayor. A party is considered part of the state government if it provides at least one Senator, including the Governing Mayor. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Senator post will not qualify.
If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Senate of Berlin and the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin.
Marché ouvert : Aug 20, 2026, 1:42 PM ET
Volume
$2,934Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 20, 2026, 1:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Berlin state government formed after the 2026 Berlin state election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve once the composition of the first Berlin state government following the 2026 state election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office.
The state government is considered formed when the newly elected Abgeordnetenhaus elects the Governing Mayor. A party is considered part of the state government if it provides at least one Senator, including the Governing Mayor. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Senator post will not qualify.
If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Senate of Berlin and the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin.The September 20, 2026, Abgeordnetenhaus election features a fragmented field where recent polls place Die Linke, CDU, AfD, Greens, and SPD within a few points of one another, with the incumbent CDU-SPD coalition weakened by leadership changes and scandals. Die Linke has gained ground in summer surveys while CDU support stabilized after its lead candidate withdrew. This arithmetic favors post-election negotiations among multiple parties, as no single bloc approaches a majority and the established “firewall” limits AfD inclusion. Key variables include turnout among younger voters newly enfranchised at 16, district-level results, and any late shifts in economic or housing sentiment that could alter the final seat distribution before coalition talks begin.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Berlin state government formed after the 2026 Berlin state election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve once the composition of the first Berlin state government following the 2026 state election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office.
The state government is considered formed when the newly elected Abgeordnetenhaus elects the Governing Mayor. A party is considered part of the state government if it provides at least one Senator, including the Governing Mayor. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Senator post will not qualify.
If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Senate of Berlin and the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Berlin state government formed after the 2026 Berlin state election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve once the composition of the first Berlin state government following the 2026 state election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office.
The state government is considered formed when the newly elected Abgeordnetenhaus elects the Governing Mayor. A party is considered part of the state government if it provides at least one Senator, including the Governing Mayor. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Senator post will not qualify.
If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Senate of Berlin and the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin.
Volume
$2,934Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 20, 2026, 1:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The September 20, 2026, Abgeordnetenhaus election features a fragmented field where recent polls place Die Linke, CDU, AfD, Greens, and SPD within a few points of one another, with the incumbent CDU-SPD coalition weakened by leadership changes and scandals. Die Linke has gained ground in summer surveys while CDU support stabilized after its lead candidate withdrew. This arithmetic favors post-election negotiations among multiple parties, as no single bloc approaches a majority and the established “firewall” limits AfD inclusion. Key variables include turnout among younger voters newly enfranchised at 16, district-level results, and any late shifts in economic or housing sentiment that could alter the final seat distribution before coalition talks begin.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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