The AfD secured a clear plurality with 43.8% and 39 seats in the September 6, 2026 Landtag election but fell three seats short of the 42 needed for a majority, while the CDU collapsed to 17.2% and 15 seats. Other parties including the SPD, Greens, Left, and BSW (5 seats) left the AfD as the largest force yet isolated by the established parties' firewall against cooperation. The outgoing CDU-SPD-FDP coalition lacks numbers to continue, and the BSW has positioned itself as a potential kingmaker by ruling out formal coalitions while signaling openness to issue-by-issue support or abstentions that could enable an AfD-led minority government. Acting Minister-President Sven Schulze (CDU) has reiterated exclusion of AfD and Left ministers, with the decisive Minister-President vote scheduled for mid-December in the new Landtag. These dynamics center trader focus on whether BSW tolerance allows AfD participation or forces alternative arrangements.