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icon for Élection partielle de Holborn et St Pancras : partage des voix des travailleurs ?
Politique·Royaume-Uni

Élection partielle de Holborn et St Pancras : partage des voix des travailleurs ?

icon for Élection partielle de Holborn et St Pancras : partage des voix des travailleurs ?
Politique·Royaume-Uni

Élection partielle de Holborn et St Pancras : partage des voix des travailleurs ?

35-40 % 26%

30-35 % 21%

50 %+ 19%

45-50 % 19%

Polymarket
NOUVEAU

35-40 % 26%

30-35 % 21%

50 %+ 19%

45-50 % 19%

Polymarket
NOUVEAU
icon for <30 %

<30 %

$27 Vol.

12%

icon for 30-35 %

30-35 %

$26 Vol.

26%

icon for 35-40 %

35-40 %

$37 Vol.

25%

icon for 40-45 %

40-45 %

$29 Vol.

24%

icon for 45-50 %

45-50 %

$6 Vol.

19%

icon for 50 %+

50 %+

$88 Vol.

19%

A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer. This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election. The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Labour Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).Labour's vote share in the October 8 by-election for Keir Starmer’s former seat sits in a narrow band around 35-40% according to current trader pricing, reflecting a projected decline from the 48.9% recorded in 2024. The contest features Labour’s local candidate Sagal Abdi-Wali against Green Party leader Zack Polanski, with recent Camden ward results from May 2026 showing Labour at 38.8% and the Greens at 28.8%. These figures, alongside demographic models projecting a low-40s Labour share under current national conditions, anchor expectations of a reduced but still leading performance for the governing party. Low overall turnout typical of by-elections, combined with the seat’s progressive voter base and limited campaigning time since nominations closed on 15 September, sustains the close contest between the 30-35% and 35-40% bands. Any late shifts in local turnout or differential mobilisation between Labour and Green supporters could widen or narrow the outcome.

A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.

This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.

The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.

Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Labour Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer. This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election. The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Labour Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
Volume
$213
Date de fin
8 oct. 2026
Marché ouvert
Sep 14, 2026, 6:49 PM ET

Résolveur

0x69c47De9D...
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer. This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election. The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Labour Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).Labour's vote share in the October 8 by-election for Keir Starmer’s former seat sits in a narrow band around 35-40% according to current trader pricing, reflecting a projected decline from the 48.9% recorded in 2024. The contest features Labour’s local candidate Sagal Abdi-Wali against Green Party leader Zack Polanski, with recent Camden ward results from May 2026 showing Labour at 38.8% and the Greens at 28.8%. These figures, alongside demographic models projecting a low-40s Labour share under current national conditions, anchor expectations of a reduced but still leading performance for the governing party. Low overall turnout typical of by-elections, combined with the seat’s progressive voter base and limited campaigning time since nominations closed on 15 September, sustains the close contest between the 30-35% and 35-40% bands. Any late shifts in local turnout or differential mobilisation between Labour and Green supporters could widen or narrow the outcome.

A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.

This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.

The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.

Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Labour Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer. This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election. The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Labour Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
Volume
$213
Date de fin
8 oct. 2026
Marché ouvert
Sep 14, 2026, 6:49 PM ET

Résolveur

0x69c47De9D...

Connexes

icon for Le candidat du Parti vert obtiendra-t-il entre 30 et 35 % des voix lors de l'élection partielle de Holborn et St Pancras ?

Le candidat du Parti vert obtiendra-t-il entre 30 et 35 % des voix lors de l'élection partielle de Holborn et St Pancras ?

30%
Oui
icon for Le candidat travailliste remportera-t-il l'élection partielle de Holborn et St Pancras avec une marge de 10 à 15 % ?

Le candidat travailliste remportera-t-il l'élection partielle de Holborn et St Pancras avec une marge de 10 à 15 % ?

42%
Oui
icon for Sagal Abdi-Wali va-t-elle gagner l'élection partielle de Holborn et St Pancras ?

Sagal Abdi-Wali va-t-elle gagner l'élection partielle de Holborn et St Pancras ?

77%
Oui

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Questions fréquentes

« Élection partielle de Holborn et St Pancras : partage des voix des travailleurs ? » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 6 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « 30-35 % » à 26%, suivi de « 35-40 % » à 25%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 26¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 26% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

« Élection partielle de Holborn et St Pancras : partage des voix des travailleurs ? » est un marché nouvellement créé sur Polymarket, lancé le Sep 14, 2026. En tant que marché récent, c'est votre opportunité d'être parmi les premiers traders à définir les cotes et établir les premiers signaux de prix du marché. Vous pouvez également ajouter cette page à vos favoris pour suivre le volume et l'activité de trading au fil du temps.

Pour trader sur « Élection partielle de Holborn et St Pancras : partage des voix des travailleurs ? », parcourez les 6 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « Élection partielle de Holborn et St Pancras : partage des voix des travailleurs ? » est « 30-35 % » à 26%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 26% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « 35-40 % » à 25%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Élection partielle de Holborn et St Pancras : partage des voix des travailleurs ? » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.