The close spread across Green vote share brackets reflects uncertainty in the October 8 by-election for the seat vacated by Keir Starmer, where Zack Polanski leads the Green challenge against Labour candidate Sagal Abdi-Wali. Recent Camden local election results showed the Greens securing second place with roughly 28% support, building on their 10.4% in 2024 and bolstered by Andrew Feinstein’s endorsement transferring independent votes focused on housing affordability, rent controls, and climate policy. Polanski’s high-profile selection and intensive doorstep campaign have sustained momentum in a constituency long held by Labour, yet structural advantages for the incumbent party and limited polling keep probabilities distributed without clear separation. Further campaign developments or turnout patterns could shift outcomes before polling day.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourÉlection partielle de Holborn et St Pancras : partage du vote vert ?
Élection partielle de Holborn et St Pancras : partage du vote vert ?
<20 % 26%
20-25 % 21%
25-30 % 18%
30-35 % 17%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
8 oct. 2026
<20 %
26%
20-25 %
21%
25-30 %
18%
30-35 %
17%
35-40 %
15%
40 % +
12%
<20 % 26%
20-25 % 21%
25-30 % 18%
30-35 % 17%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
8 oct. 2026
<20 %
$28 Vol.
26%
20-25 %
$39 Vol.
21%
25-30 %
$39 Vol.
18%
30-35 %
$58 Vol.
17%
35-40 %
$19 Vol.
15%
40 % +
$39 Vol.
12%
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Green Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).The close spread across Green vote share brackets reflects uncertainty in the October 8 by-election for the seat vacated by Keir Starmer, where Zack Polanski leads the Green challenge against Labour candidate Sagal Abdi-Wali. Recent Camden local election results showed the Greens securing second place with roughly 28% support, building on their 10.4% in 2024 and bolstered by Andrew Feinstein’s endorsement transferring independent votes focused on housing affordability, rent controls, and climate policy. Polanski’s high-profile selection and intensive doorstep campaign have sustained momentum in a constituency long held by Labour, yet structural advantages for the incumbent party and limited polling keep probabilities distributed without clear separation. Further campaign developments or turnout patterns could shift outcomes before polling day.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Green Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Green Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
Marché ouvert : Sep 14, 2026, 6:50 PM ET
Volume
$222Date de fin
8 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 14, 2026, 6:50 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Green Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).The close spread across Green vote share brackets reflects uncertainty in the October 8 by-election for the seat vacated by Keir Starmer, where Zack Polanski leads the Green challenge against Labour candidate Sagal Abdi-Wali. Recent Camden local election results showed the Greens securing second place with roughly 28% support, building on their 10.4% in 2024 and bolstered by Andrew Feinstein’s endorsement transferring independent votes focused on housing affordability, rent controls, and climate policy. Polanski’s high-profile selection and intensive doorstep campaign have sustained momentum in a constituency long held by Labour, yet structural advantages for the incumbent party and limited polling keep probabilities distributed without clear separation. Further campaign developments or turnout patterns could shift outcomes before polling day.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Green Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Green Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
Volume
$222Date de fin
8 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 14, 2026, 6:50 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...The close spread across Green vote share brackets reflects uncertainty in the October 8 by-election for the seat vacated by Keir Starmer, where Zack Polanski leads the Green challenge against Labour candidate Sagal Abdi-Wali. Recent Camden local election results showed the Greens securing second place with roughly 28% support, building on their 10.4% in 2024 and bolstered by Andrew Feinstein’s endorsement transferring independent votes focused on housing affordability, rent controls, and climate policy. Polanski’s high-profile selection and intensive doorstep campaign have sustained momentum in a constituency long held by Labour, yet structural advantages for the incumbent party and limited polling keep probabilities distributed without clear separation. Further campaign developments or turnout patterns could shift outcomes before polling day.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourConnexes
Le candidat du Parti travailliste obtiendra-t-il 35 à 40 % des voix lors de l'élection partielle de Holborn et St Pancras ?
25%
Oui
Le candidat travailliste remportera-t-il l'élection partielle de Holborn et St Pancras avec une marge de 15 % ou plus ?
34%
Oui
Sagal Abdi-Wali va-t-elle gagner l'élection partielle de Holborn et St Pancras ?
77%
Oui
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