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icon for Élection partielle de Holborn et St Pancras : Marge de victoire de la part des voix
Politique·Royaume-Uni

Élection partielle de Holborn et St Pancras : Marge de victoire de la part des voix

icon for Élection partielle de Holborn et St Pancras : Marge de victoire de la part des voix
Politique·Royaume-Uni

Élection partielle de Holborn et St Pancras : Marge de victoire de la part des voix

Travailliste 15 %+ 42%

Travailliste 10-15 % 25%

Travailliste 5-10 % 17%

Travailliste 0-5 % 15%

Polymarket
NOUVEAU

Travailliste 15 %+ 42%

Travailliste 10-15 % 25%

Travailliste 5-10 % 17%

Travailliste 0-5 % 15%

Polymarket
NOUVEAU

Travailliste 15 %+

$1,274 Vol.

42%

Travailliste 10-15 %

$140 Vol.

25%

Travailliste 5-10 %

$197 Vol.

9%

Travailliste 0-5 %

$164 Vol.

15%

Vert 0-5 %

$132 Vol.

3%

Écologiste 5-10 %

$135 Vol.

19%

Vert 10-15 %

$610 Vol.

5%

Écologiste 15 %+

$74 Vol.

2%

A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in this by-election. The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the candidate who wins the most valid votes and the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes. Percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate in question. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If a candidate standing for a party other than the Labour Party or the Green Party wins the most valid votes, this market will resolve to "Another candidate wins". If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose party name comes first in alphabetical order. If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Another candidate wins". This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).**The by-election in Holborn and St Pancras, triggered by Keir Starmer’s resignation as MP in early September 2026 to pursue international roles, features a tight contest between Labour’s Sagal Abdi-Wali and Green Party leader Zack Polanski.** Recent Camden council results showed Labour and the Greens closely matched in the constituency’s wards, while projections place the parties within a few points of each other on October 8 polling day. This positioning supports the market’s roughly even split between a non-Labour victory and Labour securing a double-digit margin, with smaller Labour leads or Green gains reflecting the competitive dynamics and split opposition vote among Conservatives, Liberal Democrats, Reform UK, and minor parties. Campaign focus on housing, safety, and local regeneration continues without major late shifts reported.

A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in this by-election.

The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the candidate who wins the most valid votes and the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes. Percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.

Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate in question.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.

If a candidate standing for a party other than the Labour Party or the Green Party wins the most valid votes, this market will resolve to "Another candidate wins".

If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose party name comes first in alphabetical order.

If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Another candidate wins".

This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in this by-election. The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the candidate who wins the most valid votes and the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes. Percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate in question. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If a candidate standing for a party other than the Labour Party or the Green Party wins the most valid votes, this market will resolve to "Another candidate wins". If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose party name comes first in alphabetical order. If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Another candidate wins". This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
Volume
$2,727
Date de fin
8 oct. 2026
Marché ouvert
Sep 14, 2026, 6:50 PM ET

Résolveur

0x69c47De9D...
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in this by-election. The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the candidate who wins the most valid votes and the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes. Percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate in question. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If a candidate standing for a party other than the Labour Party or the Green Party wins the most valid votes, this market will resolve to "Another candidate wins". If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose party name comes first in alphabetical order. If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Another candidate wins". This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).**The by-election in Holborn and St Pancras, triggered by Keir Starmer’s resignation as MP in early September 2026 to pursue international roles, features a tight contest between Labour’s Sagal Abdi-Wali and Green Party leader Zack Polanski.** Recent Camden council results showed Labour and the Greens closely matched in the constituency’s wards, while projections place the parties within a few points of each other on October 8 polling day. This positioning supports the market’s roughly even split between a non-Labour victory and Labour securing a double-digit margin, with smaller Labour leads or Green gains reflecting the competitive dynamics and split opposition vote among Conservatives, Liberal Democrats, Reform UK, and minor parties. Campaign focus on housing, safety, and local regeneration continues without major late shifts reported.

A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in this by-election.

The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the candidate who wins the most valid votes and the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes. Percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.

Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate in question.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.

If a candidate standing for a party other than the Labour Party or the Green Party wins the most valid votes, this market will resolve to "Another candidate wins".

If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose party name comes first in alphabetical order.

If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Another candidate wins".

This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in this by-election. The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the candidate who wins the most valid votes and the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes. Percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate in question. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If a candidate standing for a party other than the Labour Party or the Green Party wins the most valid votes, this market will resolve to "Another candidate wins". If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose party name comes first in alphabetical order. If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Another candidate wins". This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
Volume
$2,727
Date de fin
8 oct. 2026
Marché ouvert
Sep 14, 2026, 6:50 PM ET

Résolveur

0x69c47De9D...

Connexes

icon for Le candidat du Parti vert obtiendra-t-il entre 35 et 40 % des voix lors de l'élection partielle de Holborn et St Pancras ?

Le candidat du Parti vert obtiendra-t-il entre 35 et 40 % des voix lors de l'élection partielle de Holborn et St Pancras ?

33%
Oui
icon for Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 CT-01 House election by 30%-35%?

Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 CT-01 House election by 30%-35%?

25%
icon for Le candidat du Parti démocrate gagnera-t-il l'élection de la Chambre SC-06 en 2026 avec une avance de 30 à 35 % ?

Le candidat du Parti démocrate gagnera-t-il l'élection de la Chambre SC-06 en 2026 avec une avance de 30 à 35 % ?

32%
Oui

Méfiez-vous des liens externes.

Questions fréquentes

« Élection partielle de Holborn et St Pancras : Marge de victoire de la part des voix » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 8 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « Travailliste 15 %+ » à 42%, suivi de « Travailliste 10-15 % » à 25%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 42¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 42% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

« Élection partielle de Holborn et St Pancras : Marge de victoire de la part des voix » est un marché nouvellement créé sur Polymarket, lancé le Sep 14, 2026. En tant que marché récent, c'est votre opportunité d'être parmi les premiers traders à définir les cotes et établir les premiers signaux de prix du marché. Vous pouvez également ajouter cette page à vos favoris pour suivre le volume et l'activité de trading au fil du temps.

Pour trader sur « Élection partielle de Holborn et St Pancras : Marge de victoire de la part des voix », parcourez les 8 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « Élection partielle de Holborn et St Pancras : Marge de victoire de la part des voix » est « Travailliste 15 %+ » à 42%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 42% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « Travailliste 10-15 % » à 25%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Élection partielle de Holborn et St Pancras : Marge de victoire de la part des voix » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.