Sweden's Tidö parties—the Moderates, Christian Democrats, Liberals, and Sweden Democrats—currently trail the Red-Green opposition bloc by roughly 8–10 points in aggregated polling from major firms such as Novus, Indikator, and Demoskop conducted through July 2026. The Social Democrats alone register near 32 percent support, while the four Tidö-aligned parties together project around 44–46 percent of the vote. With the September 13 election only weeks away, this gap translates into a projected seat deficit well below the 175-seat threshold required for a Riksdag majority. Recent surveys show the opposition's lead has remained stable since spring, reflecting limited momentum for the incumbent arrangement despite ongoing policy implementation on crime and immigration. Traders therefore assign high probability to a continued Red-Green advantage heading into the final campaign period.