Recent polling from sources including FOM, WCIOM, and ExtremeScan places A Just Russia (SR) support between roughly 4% and 7% on the party-list ballot ahead of the September 18–20 State Duma elections, positioning the party near or marginally above the 5% threshold required for proportional representation. As one of the established systemic opposition parties, SR benefits from the Kremlin’s preference for maintaining a managed five-party configuration in parliament, with analysts noting likely administrative support through single-mandate districts or other mechanisms to secure passage. The party, led by Sergey Mironov, held its nominating congress in July and has repositioned toward pro-war patriotic messaging targeting specific voter segments. These dynamics, combined with the tightly controlled electoral process, underpin the current trader-implied probability of 66% for clearing the threshold.