Recent polls show Die Linke and the CDU nearly tied for the lead around 20-21%, followed closely by the AfD and Greens, creating a fragmented outcome that limits large overhang mandates. With the Abgeordnetenhaus starting at a statutory minimum of 130 seats under mixed-member proportional rules, the final total hinges on how many of the 78 constituencies parties capture relative to their second-vote shares and whether smaller lists like the FDP or BSW clear the 5% threshold. Late-campaign shifts in direct-mandate strongholds and turnout among newly enfranchised 16- and 17-year-olds could alter compensatory leveling seats, keeping size brackets tightly contested ahead of the September 20 vote.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour153–157 40%
163+ 26%
<143 24%
148–152 22%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
20 sept. 2026
<143
24%
143–147
20%
148–152
22%
153–157
40%
158–162
10%
163+
26%
153–157 40%
163+ 26%
<143 24%
148–152 22%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
20 sept. 2026
<143
$0 Vol.
24%
143–147
$0 Vol.
20%
148–152
$0 Vol.
22%
153–157
$0 Vol.
40%
158–162
$0 Vol.
10%
163+
$0 Vol.
26%
Elections to the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin (Berlin House of Representatives) are scheduled to be held on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election, including any overhang seats (Überhangmandate) and compensatory seats (Ausgleichsmandate).
The Abgeordnetenhaus has a statutory minimum of 130 seats, of which 78 are elected in single-member constituencies and the remainder allocated from party lists. Where a party wins more constituency seats than its share of valid second votes entitles it to, it retains those seats as overhang seats and other parties in the Abgeordnetenhaus receive compensatory seats, increasing the total size of the chamber.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats allocated in the official final results. Seats subsequently vacated, or changes arising from members leaving or changing party, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results published by the Berlin State Returning Officer (Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin, https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent polls show Die Linke and the CDU nearly tied for the lead around 20-21%, followed closely by the AfD and Greens, creating a fragmented outcome that limits large overhang mandates. With the Abgeordnetenhaus starting at a statutory minimum of 130 seats under mixed-member proportional rules, the final total hinges on how many of the 78 constituencies parties capture relative to their second-vote shares and whether smaller lists like the FDP or BSW clear the 5% threshold. Late-campaign shifts in direct-mandate strongholds and turnout among newly enfranchised 16- and 17-year-olds could alter compensatory leveling seats, keeping size brackets tightly contested ahead of the September 20 vote.
Elections to the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin (Berlin House of Representatives) are scheduled to be held on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election, including any overhang seats (Überhangmandate) and compensatory seats (Ausgleichsmandate).
The Abgeordnetenhaus has a statutory minimum of 130 seats, of which 78 are elected in single-member constituencies and the remainder allocated from party lists. Where a party wins more constituency seats than its share of valid second votes entitles it to, it retains those seats as overhang seats and other parties in the Abgeordnetenhaus receive compensatory seats, increasing the total size of the chamber.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats allocated in the official final results. Seats subsequently vacated, or changes arising from members leaving or changing party, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results published by the Berlin State Returning Officer (Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin, https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election, including any overhang seats (Überhangmandate) and compensatory seats (Ausgleichsmandate).
The Abgeordnetenhaus has a statutory minimum of 130 seats, of which 78 are elected in single-member constituencies and the remainder allocated from party lists. Where a party wins more constituency seats than its share of valid second votes entitles it to, it retains those seats as overhang seats and other parties in the Abgeordnetenhaus receive compensatory seats, increasing the total size of the chamber.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats allocated in the official final results. Seats subsequently vacated, or changes arising from members leaving or changing party, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results published by the Berlin State Returning Officer (Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin, https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Sep 14, 2026, 6:48 PM ET
Volume
$0Date de fin
20 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 14, 2026, 6:48 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Elections to the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin (Berlin House of Representatives) are scheduled to be held on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election, including any overhang seats (Überhangmandate) and compensatory seats (Ausgleichsmandate).
The Abgeordnetenhaus has a statutory minimum of 130 seats, of which 78 are elected in single-member constituencies and the remainder allocated from party lists. Where a party wins more constituency seats than its share of valid second votes entitles it to, it retains those seats as overhang seats and other parties in the Abgeordnetenhaus receive compensatory seats, increasing the total size of the chamber.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats allocated in the official final results. Seats subsequently vacated, or changes arising from members leaving or changing party, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results published by the Berlin State Returning Officer (Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin, https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent polls show Die Linke and the CDU nearly tied for the lead around 20-21%, followed closely by the AfD and Greens, creating a fragmented outcome that limits large overhang mandates. With the Abgeordnetenhaus starting at a statutory minimum of 130 seats under mixed-member proportional rules, the final total hinges on how many of the 78 constituencies parties capture relative to their second-vote shares and whether smaller lists like the FDP or BSW clear the 5% threshold. Late-campaign shifts in direct-mandate strongholds and turnout among newly enfranchised 16- and 17-year-olds could alter compensatory leveling seats, keeping size brackets tightly contested ahead of the September 20 vote.
Elections to the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin (Berlin House of Representatives) are scheduled to be held on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election, including any overhang seats (Überhangmandate) and compensatory seats (Ausgleichsmandate).
The Abgeordnetenhaus has a statutory minimum of 130 seats, of which 78 are elected in single-member constituencies and the remainder allocated from party lists. Where a party wins more constituency seats than its share of valid second votes entitles it to, it retains those seats as overhang seats and other parties in the Abgeordnetenhaus receive compensatory seats, increasing the total size of the chamber.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats allocated in the official final results. Seats subsequently vacated, or changes arising from members leaving or changing party, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results published by the Berlin State Returning Officer (Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin, https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election, including any overhang seats (Überhangmandate) and compensatory seats (Ausgleichsmandate).
The Abgeordnetenhaus has a statutory minimum of 130 seats, of which 78 are elected in single-member constituencies and the remainder allocated from party lists. Where a party wins more constituency seats than its share of valid second votes entitles it to, it retains those seats as overhang seats and other parties in the Abgeordnetenhaus receive compensatory seats, increasing the total size of the chamber.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats allocated in the official final results. Seats subsequently vacated, or changes arising from members leaving or changing party, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results published by the Berlin State Returning Officer (Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin, https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$0Date de fin
20 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 14, 2026, 6:48 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Recent polls show Die Linke and the CDU nearly tied for the lead around 20-21%, followed closely by the AfD and Greens, creating a fragmented outcome that limits large overhang mandates. With the Abgeordnetenhaus starting at a statutory minimum of 130 seats under mixed-member proportional rules, the final total hinges on how many of the 78 constituencies parties capture relative to their second-vote shares and whether smaller lists like the FDP or BSW clear the 5% threshold. Late-campaign shifts in direct-mandate strongholds and turnout among newly enfranchised 16- and 17-year-olds could alter compensatory leveling seats, keeping size brackets tightly contested ahead of the September 20 vote.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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