Recent polls show a fragmented Berlin race just weeks before the September 20 vote, with CDU, Linke, AfD, Grüne, and SPD clustered between roughly 13-21 percent and minimal separation among the middle pack. This volatility, including Linke gains and AfD topping at least one survey, keeps fourth-place probabilities tightly bunched around 50 percent for several mid-tier parties while elevating Grüne slightly as a frequent occupant of that slot. Local factors such as the CDU-led coalition’s handling of infrastructure issues and leadership adjustments have contributed to the churn without consolidating support behind any single contender. Trader consensus reflects the narrow margins and shifting voter blocs typical of Berlin’s multi-party system, where small swings in turnout or preference among urban and progressive voters can reorder placements. Upcoming final surveys and campaign events may clarify positioning ahead of election night.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLes Verts 53%
AfD 15%
Linke 14%
CDU 12%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
20 sept. 2026
Les Verts
53%
AfD
15%
Linke
14%
CDU
17%
SPD
8%
FDP
5%
BSW
4%
FW
11%
Les Verts 53%
AfD 15%
Linke 14%
CDU 12%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
20 sept. 2026
Les Verts
$1,373 Vol.
53%
AfD
$36 Vol.
15%
Linke
$110 Vol.
14%
CDU
$36 Vol.
17%
SPD
$36 Vol.
8%
FDP
$99 Vol.
5%
BSW
$51 Vol.
4%
FW
$84 Vol.
11%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the fourth-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the fourth finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Recent polls show a fragmented Berlin race just weeks before the September 20 vote, with CDU, Linke, AfD, Grüne, and SPD clustered between roughly 13-21 percent and minimal separation among the middle pack. This volatility, including Linke gains and AfD topping at least one survey, keeps fourth-place probabilities tightly bunched around 50 percent for several mid-tier parties while elevating Grüne slightly as a frequent occupant of that slot. Local factors such as the CDU-led coalition’s handling of infrastructure issues and leadership adjustments have contributed to the churn without consolidating support behind any single contender. Trader consensus reflects the narrow margins and shifting voter blocs typical of Berlin’s multi-party system, where small swings in turnout or preference among urban and progressive voters can reorder placements. Upcoming final surveys and campaign events may clarify positioning ahead of election night.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the fourth-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the fourth finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the fourth-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the fourth finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Marché ouvert : Aug 20, 2026, 2:14 PM ET
Volume
$1,823Date de fin
20 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 20, 2026, 2:14 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the fourth-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the fourth finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Recent polls show a fragmented Berlin race just weeks before the September 20 vote, with CDU, Linke, AfD, Grüne, and SPD clustered between roughly 13-21 percent and minimal separation among the middle pack. This volatility, including Linke gains and AfD topping at least one survey, keeps fourth-place probabilities tightly bunched around 50 percent for several mid-tier parties while elevating Grüne slightly as a frequent occupant of that slot. Local factors such as the CDU-led coalition’s handling of infrastructure issues and leadership adjustments have contributed to the churn without consolidating support behind any single contender. Trader consensus reflects the narrow margins and shifting voter blocs typical of Berlin’s multi-party system, where small swings in turnout or preference among urban and progressive voters can reorder placements. Upcoming final surveys and campaign events may clarify positioning ahead of election night.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the fourth-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the fourth finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the fourth-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the fourth finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Volume
$1,823Date de fin
20 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 20, 2026, 2:14 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polls show a fragmented Berlin race just weeks before the September 20 vote, with CDU, Linke, AfD, Grüne, and SPD clustered between roughly 13-21 percent and minimal separation among the middle pack. This volatility, including Linke gains and AfD topping at least one survey, keeps fourth-place probabilities tightly bunched around 50 percent for several mid-tier parties while elevating Grüne slightly as a frequent occupant of that slot. Local factors such as the CDU-led coalition’s handling of infrastructure issues and leadership adjustments have contributed to the churn without consolidating support behind any single contender. Trader consensus reflects the narrow margins and shifting voter blocs typical of Berlin’s multi-party system, where small swings in turnout or preference among urban and progressive voters can reorder placements. Upcoming final surveys and campaign events may clarify positioning ahead of election night.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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