**Recent polls place the AfD at or slightly above 17% in Berlin, supporting the 61.5% implied probability for the "Over" outcome on Polymarket.** The September 20, 2026, Abgeordnetenhaus election follows AfD gains from 9.1% in the 2023 repeat vote. Latest surveys show the party at 17% (INSA, August 7–13) to 18% (Civey, late July–early August), within a tight four-way contest alongside the CDU (~19–20%), Die Linke (~19–21%), and Greens (~16–17%). Earlier July polls briefly had AfD at 19%, marking its first lead in the capital. National momentum from economic concerns, immigration, and dissatisfaction with the CDU-SPD federal coalition has boosted AfD support across Germany, including western states like Berlin. The party’s consistent polling near or above the 17% line, combined with limited downside risk in the final month before voting, aligns with traders pricing a modest edge for exceeding the threshold. Other parties maintain a cordon sanitaire against AfD coalitions, but this does not directly affect vote-share outcomes.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourÉlections de l'État de Berlin : AfD de plus/moins de 17 % ?
Élections de l'État de Berlin : AfD de plus/moins de 17 % ?
Au-dessus
62% chance
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
20 sept. 2026
Au-dessus
62% chance
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
20 sept. 2026
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if AfD wins at least 17% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if AfD wins less than 17% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).**Recent polls place the AfD at or slightly above 17% in Berlin, supporting the 61.5% implied probability for the "Over" outcome on Polymarket.**
The September 20, 2026, Abgeordnetenhaus election follows AfD gains from 9.1% in the 2023 repeat vote. Latest surveys show the party at 17% (INSA, August 7–13) to 18% (Civey, late July–early August), within a tight four-way contest alongside the CDU (~19–20%), Die Linke (~19–21%), and Greens (~16–17%). Earlier July polls briefly had AfD at 19%, marking its first lead in the capital.
National momentum from economic concerns, immigration, and dissatisfaction with the CDU-SPD federal coalition has boosted AfD support across Germany, including western states like Berlin. The party’s consistent polling near or above the 17% line, combined with limited downside risk in the final month before voting, aligns with traders pricing a modest edge for exceeding the threshold. Other parties maintain a cordon sanitaire against AfD coalitions, but this does not directly affect vote-share outcomes.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if AfD wins at least 17% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if AfD wins less than 17% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve to “Over” if AfD wins at least 17% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if AfD wins less than 17% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Marché ouvert : Aug 20, 2026, 2:20 PM ET
Volume
$3,188Date de fin
20 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 20, 2026, 2:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if AfD wins at least 17% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if AfD wins less than 17% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).**Recent polls place the AfD at or slightly above 17% in Berlin, supporting the 61.5% implied probability for the "Over" outcome on Polymarket.**
The September 20, 2026, Abgeordnetenhaus election follows AfD gains from 9.1% in the 2023 repeat vote. Latest surveys show the party at 17% (INSA, August 7–13) to 18% (Civey, late July–early August), within a tight four-way contest alongside the CDU (~19–20%), Die Linke (~19–21%), and Greens (~16–17%). Earlier July polls briefly had AfD at 19%, marking its first lead in the capital.
National momentum from economic concerns, immigration, and dissatisfaction with the CDU-SPD federal coalition has boosted AfD support across Germany, including western states like Berlin. The party’s consistent polling near or above the 17% line, combined with limited downside risk in the final month before voting, aligns with traders pricing a modest edge for exceeding the threshold. Other parties maintain a cordon sanitaire against AfD coalitions, but this does not directly affect vote-share outcomes.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if AfD wins at least 17% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if AfD wins less than 17% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve to “Over” if AfD wins at least 17% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if AfD wins less than 17% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Volume
$3,188Date de fin
20 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 20, 2026, 2:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Recent polls place the AfD at or slightly above 17% in Berlin, supporting the 61.5% implied probability for the "Over" outcome on Polymarket.** The September 20, 2026, Abgeordnetenhaus election follows AfD gains from 9.1% in the 2023 repeat vote. Latest surveys show the party at 17% (INSA, August 7–13) to 18% (Civey, late July–early August), within a tight four-way contest alongside the CDU (~19–20%), Die Linke (~19–21%), and Greens (~16–17%). Earlier July polls briefly had AfD at 19%, marking its first lead in the capital. National momentum from economic concerns, immigration, and dissatisfaction with the CDU-SPD federal coalition has boosted AfD support across Germany, including western states like Berlin. The party’s consistent polling near or above the 17% line, combined with limited downside risk in the final month before voting, aligns with traders pricing a modest edge for exceeding the threshold. Other parties maintain a cordon sanitaire against AfD coalitions, but this does not directly affect vote-share outcomes.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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