Recent polling aggregates project the CAQ at roughly 22-24% support heading into the October 5 vote, placing it behind the PQ and in a statistical tie with the Liberals in several surveys, amid a fragmented field that includes a rising Conservative Party. Seat models reflect high uncertainty, with CAQ outcomes ranging from single digits to the low forties depending on vote efficiency across regions and the new 127-riding map. Leadership transition to Christine Fréchette, combined with voter fatigue over the incumbent record on spending and specific projects, has contributed to the decline from the party's 2022 majority. Recent debates have kept pressure on the CAQ platform, while regional patterns—stronger suburban and Quebec City performance offset by weakness in Montreal—sustain the spread between the leading Polymarket bins. Late-campaign shifts in turnout or Conservative consolidation could still alter the final seat tally.