Washington voters face Initiative 645 on the November 3, 2026 ballot, which would repeal the 9.9% tax on household income above $1 million enacted by the legislature in March and scheduled for 2028, while also barring future state or local income taxes. Recent polling shows 57% opposition to repeal among likely voters, with the margin widening when ballots include the fiscal impact statement warning of reduced funding for education and health care. Historical voter rejection of income tax measures has not translated into support for undoing this targeted levy, and the measure’s qualification via signatures has not shifted sentiment. Trader consensus around a 77.5% probability that the tax remains reflects these polling trends, ballot wording effects, and arguments over revenue stability for public services ahead of election day.