Incumbent Republican Jay Obernolte advanced from the June 2, 2026, California top-two primary with roughly 57 percent of the vote, well ahead of Democratic nominee Tessa Lynn Hodge at 21 percent. The district’s partisan lean and Obernolte’s prior 60 percent general-election margin in 2024 underpin trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee at 85 percent. With the November 3 general election still months away, the race remains low-profile and lacks significant polling shifts or external events that would alter the current implied probabilities reflected in prediction markets.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourVainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre CA-23
Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre CA-23
$23,061 Vol.
$23,061 Vol.
3 nov. 2026
Parti républicain
93%
Parti démocrate
7%
$23,061 Vol.
$23,061 Vol.
3 nov. 2026
Parti républicain
$12,865 Vol.
93%
Parti démocrate
$10,195 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Jay Obernolte advanced from the June 2, 2026, California top-two primary with roughly 57 percent of the vote, well ahead of Democratic nominee Tessa Lynn Hodge at 21 percent. The district’s partisan lean and Obernolte’s prior 60 percent general-election margin in 2024 underpin trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee at 85 percent. With the November 3 general election still months away, the race remains low-profile and lacks significant polling shifts or external events that would alter the current implied probabilities reflected in prediction markets.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Marché ouvert : Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ET
Volume
$23,061Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Jay Obernolte advanced from the June 2, 2026, California top-two primary with roughly 57 percent of the vote, well ahead of Democratic nominee Tessa Lynn Hodge at 21 percent. The district’s partisan lean and Obernolte’s prior 60 percent general-election margin in 2024 underpin trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee at 85 percent. With the November 3 general election still months away, the race remains low-profile and lacks significant polling shifts or external events that would alter the current implied probabilities reflected in prediction markets.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$23,061Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Jay Obernolte advanced from the June 2, 2026, California top-two primary with roughly 57 percent of the vote, well ahead of Democratic nominee Tessa Lynn Hodge at 21 percent. The district’s partisan lean and Obernolte’s prior 60 percent general-election margin in 2024 underpin trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee at 85 percent. With the November 3 general election still months away, the race remains low-profile and lacks significant polling shifts or external events that would alter the current implied probabilities reflected in prediction markets.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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