Trader consensus clusters tightly around 115-125 million total House votes because midterm turnout has historically fallen in that range when neither party generates exceptional mobilization, and current conditions offer no clear signal for a major departure. Democrats hold a modest generic ballot advantage in recent surveys, paired with stronger performance in 2026 special elections, which could lift participation among the party out of power, yet Republican base enthusiasm around economic and border issues may offset that effect. Redistricting changes in several states and an unusually high number of safe seats further dampen expectations for unusually high overall engagement. The narrow spread between leading ranges reflects uncertainty over final campaign intensity, voter registration trends, and external factors such as economic sentiment or weather that typically influence late-cycle turnout without yet producing decisive separation.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour120-125 millions 25%
115-120m 20%
110-115 millions 12%
125-130m 11%
$22,851 Vol.
$22,851 Vol.
<85M
3%
85-90 millions
1%
90-95 millions
3%
95-100m
3%
100-105m
2%
105-110m
6%
110-115 millions
12%
115-120m
20%
120-125 millions
25%
125-130m
11%
130M+
11%
120-125 millions 25%
115-120m 20%
110-115 millions 12%
125-130m 11%
$22,851 Vol.
$22,851 Vol.
<85M
3%
85-90 millions
1%
90-95 millions
3%
95-100m
3%
100-105m
2%
105-110m
6%
110-115 millions
12%
115-120m
20%
120-125 millions
25%
125-130m
11%
130M+
11%
This market will resolve according to the total number of votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the 2026 US House of Representatives midterm elections.
Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
Marché ouvert : Feb 20, 2026, 12:38 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the 2026 US House of Representatives midterm elections.
Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus clusters tightly around 115-125 million total House votes because midterm turnout has historically fallen in that range when neither party generates exceptional mobilization, and current conditions offer no clear signal for a major departure. Democrats hold a modest generic ballot advantage in recent surveys, paired with stronger performance in 2026 special elections, which could lift participation among the party out of power, yet Republican base enthusiasm around economic and border issues may offset that effect. Redistricting changes in several states and an unusually high number of safe seats further dampen expectations for unusually high overall engagement. The narrow spread between leading ranges reflects uncertainty over final campaign intensity, voter registration trends, and external factors such as economic sentiment or weather that typically influence late-cycle turnout without yet producing decisive separation.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourConnexes
Le Parti démocrate remportera-t-il le vote populaire lors des élections de mi-mandat à la Chambre des représentants des États-Unis de 2026 avec une avance comprise entre 8 % et 10 % ?
Les élections de mi-mandat de 2026 auront-elles lieu comme prévu ?
Le Parti démocrate remportera-t-il le siège de la Chambre pour l’OR-01 ?
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