Trader consensus prices Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) at 33%, New People (NL) at 32%, and Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) at 30% for third place in the September 2026 State Duma election, reflecting tight polling where these systemic opposition parties cluster at 8-17% behind dominant United Russia. New People's recent surge to second in VTsIOM surveys (13.4% as of late April), fueled by urban frustration over internet shutdowns and war fatigue, has narrowed gaps with LDPR's stable 10-14% nationalist positioning under Leonid Slutsky and KPRF's 8-13% amid leadership stagnation and eroded protest support. Divergent pollsters like FOM (favoring LDPR) versus VTsIOM/WCIOM (boosting NL) sustain the contest; separation could arise from campaign visibility, regional single-mandate results, or Kremlin administrative signals ahead of electronic voting expansion.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLiberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) 33%
New People (NL) 28%
Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) 20%
A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) 9%

United Russia (ER)
4%

Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)
30%

A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP)
14%

Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)
33%

New People (NL)
32%

Rodina
2%

Civic Platform (GP)
3%
Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) 33%
New People (NL) 28%
Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) 20%
A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) 9%

United Russia (ER)
4%

Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)
30%

A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP)
14%

Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)
33%

New People (NL)
32%

Rodina
2%

Civic Platform (GP)
3%
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the third greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
Marché ouvert : Apr 21, 2026, 3:42 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the third greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus prices Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) at 33%, New People (NL) at 32%, and Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) at 30% for third place in the September 2026 State Duma election, reflecting tight polling where these systemic opposition parties cluster at 8-17% behind dominant United Russia. New People's recent surge to second in VTsIOM surveys (13.4% as of late April), fueled by urban frustration over internet shutdowns and war fatigue, has narrowed gaps with LDPR's stable 10-14% nationalist positioning under Leonid Slutsky and KPRF's 8-13% amid leadership stagnation and eroded protest support. Divergent pollsters like FOM (favoring LDPR) versus VTsIOM/WCIOM (boosting NL) sustain the contest; separation could arise from campaign visibility, regional single-mandate results, or Kremlin administrative signals ahead of electronic voting expansion.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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